Fragile states

Fragile states on the international agenda

Page contents:

• Introduction
• Why fragile states matter

Introduction

Over the past 5 years, so-called ‘fragile states’ and how best to engage with them have emerged as a key priority in the international development community. This concern has surfaced from the confluence of several factors, including (i) an emphasis on human security and peace building; (ii) a concern with the relationship between state effectiveness and development; and (iii) a belief that underdevelopment and insecurity (individual and international) are related.

One billion people, including about 340m of the world’s extreme poor, are estimated to live in this small group of between 30-50 ‘fragile’ countries, located mainly in Africa, that are ‘falling behind and falling apart’ (Collier, 2007). There is now consensus that without a strengthened model of international engagement, these countries will continue to fall behind.

It is recognised that delivering aid in these contexts cannot be ‘business as usual’, and that fragile situations require a co-ordinated, cross-sectoral approach that combines support to state building and peace building and uses whole-of-government approaches. But fragile states are 'under-aided', even against allocation models that take their performance into account. Aid flows are excessively volatile, poorly coordinated, and often reactive rather than preventive.

The fragile states agenda is surrounded by a great deal of critical debate. The term itself is highly contested - some argue it implicitly contains normative assumptions of how states should perform and a misguided notion that all states will eventually converge around a Western model of statehood. But in spite of the many criticisms of how fragile states have been conceptualised, few would dispute the severe impacts this group of states imposes on the security and well being of their populations, or that without progress in them, the MDGs are unlikely to be met.

Collier, P., 2007, 'The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What can be Done About it', Oxford University Press, Oxford
This seminal book argues the real challenge of development is the small group of countries at the bottom that are falling behind and often falling apart. These countries, and the billion people who live in them, are caught in one or another of four traps: the conflict trap; the natural resources trap; the trap of being landlocked with bad neighbours; and the trap of bad governance in a small country. Whilst these traps are not inescapable, standard solutions will not work: aid has been ineffective, and globalisation has made things worse. A new mix of policy instruments is required, supported by a bold new plan of action for the G8.
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Andersen, L., 2008, 'Fragile States on the International Agenda', Part I in Fragile Situations: Background papers, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen
What are the underlying tenets of the fragile states debate? This research from the Danish Institute for International Studies argues the fragile states debate is essentially about politics. Focusing on the security-development nexus and on state building, it suggests the debate concerns principles that are fundamental to the way we perceive the present world order. This creates a tension between idealism and realism. There is a need to prioritize and make choices between different values.
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Zoellick, R., ‘Fragile States: Securing Development’, Survival, Vol 50, No. 6, December 2008 pp. 67-84
How can security, governance and economics be synthesised so as to secure the development of fragile states? This journal article by the President of the World Bank Group argues that in order to address fragile situations effectively, a new framework is required that goes beyond the development model. This new framework involves building security, legitimacy, governance and economy. It is about securing development – bringing security and development together to smooth the transition from conflict to peace and to embed stability so that development can take hold.
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DFID, 2005, 'Why we Need to Work More Effectively in Fragile States', Department for International Development, London 
Why has aid not reduced poverty in fragile states? Why do donors need to work more effectively in fragile states, and how should they go about this? This policy paper from the Department for International Development (DFID) brings together the latest analysis from DFID and others on how to make development more effective in fragile states. It sets out some objectives and makes commitments about how DFID will work differently in the future.
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Why fragile states matter

Impact on MDGs, poverty and growth

Fragile states are often characterised by ongoing violence and insecurity, a legacy of conflict, weak governance and the inability to deliver the efficient and equitable distribution of public goods. They have consistently grown more slowly than other low-income countries, and the rate of extreme poverty is rising within them. They lag behind in meeting all the Millennium Development Goals; with a 50% higher prevalence of malnutrition, 20% higher child mortality, and 18% lower primary education completion rates than other low-income countries (World Bank, 2007).

Global Monitoring Report, 2007, ‘Weak Growth and Less Poverty Reduction in Fragile States’, Chapter I in Global Monitoring Report: Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States, World Bank, Washington
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Impact on vulnerable populations

It is widely acknowledged that fragility most negatively affects the poorest and the most vulnerable groups in society, including women and children. These groups experience the greatest impacts in terms of increased risk of violence, exploitation, abuse, neglect, loss of livelihood, threats to personal safety, poverty and malnutrition.

UNU-WIDER, 2008, ‘The Impact of Conflict and Fragility on Households: A Conceptual Framework with Reference to Widows’, World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki
How do mass violent conflict and a fragile environment affect households? How do poor households cope with such an environment? This paper from the United Nations University World Institute for Development Research analyses the channels through which mass violent conflict and post-conflict fragility affect households. It highlights how a fragile environment impairs a household’s core functions, boundaries and choice of income generating activities.
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Regional and global implications of state fragility

Fragile states have been linked with a range of transnational security threats and humanitarian concerns, including; mass migration, organised crime, violent conflict, communicable diseases, environmental degradation and, more recently, terrorism. Some argue fragile states have direct 'spillover' effects on neighbouring countries, including reduced growth and destabilisation. The negative impacts of fragility across borders is often considered as justification for international intervention. Nevertheless, relatively little empirical analysis has been conducted on the ‘costs’ of fragile states, and some research has questioned the notion of a direct causal link between fragility and threats to international security.

Chauvet, L., Collier, P., and Hoeffler, A., 2007, ‘The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty’, UNU-WIDER Research Paper No.30, UNU-WIDER, Helsinki
What are the costs of state failure? What implications do these costs have for sovereignty? This paper from the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research estimates the costs of state failure for failing states and their neighbours. It finds that the total cost of state failure is very large and borne mainly by the neighbours of failing states. There may therefore be good reason to vest sovereignty in the region or sub-region rather than the state, empowering international intervention in the process.
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Patrick, S., 2006, 'Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of "Spillovers"', Working Paper no. 73, Center for Global Development, Washington 
Since September 11, the ‘spillover effect’ – the presumed connection between weak states and a variety of transnational threats such as terrorism, weapons proliferation and organised crime - has been a key motivation behind foreign and aid policy. But is there any evidence to support the ‘spillover’ assertion? This paper from the Centre for Global Development explores the links between weak states and global threats, concluding that whilst weak states do often incubate global threats, this correlation is far from universal. A deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms linking the two is required.
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Iqbal, Z. and Starr, H., 2008, 'Bad Neighbors: Failed States and Their Consequences', Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2 vol. 5, pp. 315-331
When states fail, do they destabilise entire regions? This study from Pennsylvania State University and the University of South Carolina assesses the negative effects of state collapse, focusing particularly on the spatial diffusion of these consequences. It argues that when a state collapses, neighbouring states are also likely to experience higher levels of political instability, unrest, civil war and interstate conflict. It concludes that state failure is not contagious but some of its most negative consequences diffuse to other states.
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Further resources

The forthcoming World Development Report 2011 will focus on the subject of Conflict, Security and Development.

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