Conflict

Conflict causes and dynamics (part 1)

This page covers the causes of armed conflict and the dynamics through which these causes interact and change. A thorough understanding the causes and dynamics of armed conflict in a particular country is vital for designing interventions that will not exacerbate violence. Conflict is inherent to all societies and arises when two or more societal groups pursue incompatible objectives. It is a dynamic process that can lead to positive or negative change. Certain forms of conflict are essential for developmental change, such as democratic debate in parliament. Violent conflicts occur when the institutions that manage conflict in society (such as political systems, informal institutions, or the justice sector) are no longer able to accommodate different interest groups through negotiation, compromise and grievance resolution. Different analysts accord varying importance to the following groups of causal factors:

• Inequality (political, economic, social, 'grievances')
• Identity (mobilisation of groups with shared ethnic or religious identities)
• Political factors (crises of state legitimacy, weak state institutions)
• Economic factors (economic motivations for engagement in conflict, 'greed')
• Political economy (where access to resources is determined by violence)
• International factors (trade, regional instability, development assistance).

It is generally agreed that none of these factors act alone, but that it is the dynamics, or interplay, between the factors that can lead to violence. For example, political and economic inequalities can enable elites to manipulate ethnic or religious identities into violent conflict. Natural resources may not cause conflict, but they may prolong it, and are often central to the political economy of war.

Page contents

Where is a good place to start?

The following paper is a policy-oriented analysis of the structural causes of conflict in Africa, highlighting the importance of governance. It seeks to overturn assumptions and to develop a sophisticated approach to analysing crises.

Nathan, L., 2004, 'The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: The Structural Causes of Crisis and Violence in Africa', DESTIN Research Seminar Series, London School of Economics, London
Is external intervention in Africa successful in solving violent conflicts? Does it manage to address the structural causes of violence or does it exacerbate the problem? Are the "early warning" and "crisis prevention" approaches effective?
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The following article analyses data across 161 countries to identify factors that increase the risk of civil war. The paper finds that ethnic or religious diversity is not a risk factor, but that poverty, political instability, rough terrain and large populations do involve a higher risk of armed conflict.

Fearon, J. and Laitin, D., 2003, Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, American Political Science Review 97(1), pp. 75-90
What factors lead to civil war? Is there a link between civil conflicts and ethnicity? In contrast to traditional views, this paper from Stanford University argues that the current prevalence of civil wars results from the steady accumulation of protracted crises from the 1950s and 1960s onwards, rather than recent changes in the post-Cold War world system. Moreover, issues such as poverty, political instability and weak states contribute to the outbreak of civil wars as they favour rebel recruitment and lead to corrupt counterinsurgency practices.
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DFID's strategic conflict assessments provide in-depth analysis of the causes and dynamics of conflict in particular country cases. These studies can be accessed in the conflict assessments section of this topic guide.

Inequality, poverty and conflict

Poverty and inequality are often cited as both causes and outcomes of conflict. Whether or not conflict becomes violent may depend on the type of inequality and the way in which it is created. Grievances can become particularly severe where there are horizontal inequalities between the opportunities and access to resources of different groups. Causes of horizontal inequalities can include unequal legal and citizenship rights, or discriminatory public spending and services. Social exclusion can also occur as a result of conflict, affecting for example unemployed and excluded youth combatants returning from conflict or women who are stigmatized because of rape during conflict.

The following two papers examine the concept of horizontal inequalities and the impact on development and social stability.

Stewart, F., 2004, Horizontal Inequalities: A Neglected Dimension of Development, CRISE Working Paper No. 1
Why are groups important for individual welfare and social stability? When and how do horizontal inequalities lead to conflict? Current thinking about development places individuals firmly at the centre of concern for analysis and policy. Attention is focussed on inequality between individuals. This paper by the Director of the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security, and Ethnicity (CRISE), UK, explores why groups are important for individual welfare and social stability, and argues that inequalities between culturally formed groups (horizontal inequalities) are an important but neglected dimension of development.
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Ostby, G., 2004, ‘Do Horizontal Inequalities Matter for Civil Conflict?’, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo.
Do nationwide inequalities between social groups increase the likelihood of civil conflict? This paper from the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, compares levels of economic, social and health-related inequality between ethnic groups with the risk of civil conflict in 33 developing countries. It argues that, while there is no statistically important link between economic or health-related indicators and civil war, there is a strong connection between social inequality and conflict.
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The next paper examines the conditions under which economic inequality would lead to conflict.

Cramer, C., 2003, 'Does Inequality Cause Conflict ?', Journal of International Development, vol.15, pp. 397-412
What is the role of economic inequality in civil conflict? This paper from London University assesses the shortcomings of recent research and suggests that economic inequality is hugely important to explaining civil conflict, but only insofar as the economic is viewed as inseparable from the social, political, cultural and historical.
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The following paper traces the various ways in which violent conflict impacts on poverty and inequality.

Luckham, R., Ahmed, I., Muggah, R. and White, S. 2001, 'Conflict and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Assessment of the Issues and Evidence.' IDS Working Paper 128, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton
Conflict is a major determinant of poverty; and poverty remains the major course of conflict. Armed conflict has affected over half of the countries in Sub- Saharan Africa over the last twenty years. Analysis of the linkages between conflict and poverty remain inadequate, including the effect of conflict on economic, social and political structures. Understanding these linkages is essential to bring peace and development. 
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Identity and conflict

Some approaches to understanding conflict focus on the role of identity. Ethnic or religious identities are frequently cited explanations of conflict. However, popular explanations of conflict caused by a 'clash' between different ethnic or religious groups have been discredited as simplistic by academic research. Such explanations contain problematic assumptions about the innate characteristics of identity, assuming that it is unchanging and uniform, rather than being individually defined and constantly changing through time. Conflict is also sometimes reduced to 'irrational hatreds', ignoring the role of inequalities, and political and economic factors. However, accounts that take note of how identity is socially constructed do offer important insights into the causes of conflict. For example, disaffected groups may mobilise around shared identities, or elites may manipulate and redefine identities and stereotypes in order to further their own agendas.

Van Hoyweghen, S. and Vlassenroot, K., 2000, 'Ethnic Ideology and Conflict in SSA. The Culture Clash Revisited', in Politics of Identity and Economics of Conflict in the Great Lakes Region, eds R. Doom and J. Gorus, VUB Press, Brussels
How did the concept of ethnicity emerge and to what extent is it linked to colonialism? What is the relationship between ethnicity and conflict within Sub-Saharan Africa? This article explores the complexity of ethnic conflicts though examining the social and political context on the ground. It summaries the theoretical debate on ethnicity, explores the context in which ethnicity emerged and examines post-colonial politics to explain ethnicity within African societies today. It argues that current ethnic conflict should be understood as a form of intensified political and economic competition, not as a result of ethnic hatreds.
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Avruch, K., Culture and Conflict Resolution, United States Institute for Peace, Washington, DC
What is the role of culture in conflict resolution? Culture provides a way for us to talk about the world’s social, political, religious, economic and psychological context – and yet the place of culture in theories of negotiation has remained peripheral. The fourth part of the book, ‘Culture and Conflict Resolution’ examines how culture has been used or ignored in some classic conflict resolution techniques. In particular it discusses third party interventions, and highlights two problem-solving workshop practitioners, Burton and Lederach. Ultimately, in any sort of intercultural conflict resolution, a cultural analysis is an irreducible part of the process.
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The global rise in ethnic and religious conflict has renewed interest in the relationships between religion and violence. Many analysts argue that religion is not the dominant cause factor for conflict, but that the potential for violence increases when religious factors overlap with and enforce social, economic and political factors.

Appleby, S. R., 2000, ‘The Ambivalence of the Sacred’, Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham
Under what conditions do religious actors become violent? Under what conditions do they reject violence? How do non-violent religious actors become agents of peacebuilding? This book from the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict examines these questions using a number of case studies from different religions. It argues that a new breed of religious peacemakers have the capacity to advance the cause of peacebuilding in troubled regions, and deserve greater recognition and support.
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Political causes of conflict

One of the fundamental roles of governments is to manage conflict and resolve grievances in a peaceful and consensual manner. The onset of violent conflict often involves conflict management failures linked with shortfalls in state legitimacy and weak state capacity. In addition, where states lack the capacity to enforce the rule of law or control the use of violence, there are opportunities for rebel groups and international criminal networks to operate. In turn, conflicts weaken state institutions, and may further undermine state responsiveness and legitimacy.

The following three papers offer nuanced analyses of the role of state failures in the onset and dynamics of conflict. All three argue that common assumptions need to be questioned in order to design appropriate responses.

Cliffe, L. and Luckham, R.,1999, 'Complex Political Emergencies and the State: Failure and the Fate of the State,' Third World Quarterly, vol.20, no.1, pp. 27-50
This paper provides an analytical framework to explore the different origins, shapes, and outcomes of CPEs, with a strong focus on the characteristics of the state before, during and after a conflict. The report seeks to draw practical lessons from CPEs around the world, with special reference to Africa, where most post cold-war conflicts have, and are still, occurring. It strongly warns against the danger of over- simplification, however, instead concentrating on the characteristics of a conflict. 
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Nathan, L., 2004, 'The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse' The Structural Causes of Crisis and Violence in Africa, DESTIN Research Seminar Series, London School of Economics
Is external intervention in Africa successful in solving violent conflicts? Does it manage to address the structural causes of violence or does it exacerbate the problem? Are the "early warning" and "crisis prevention" approaches effective?
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The following paper looks specifically at state collapse.

Doornbos, M., 2002, 'State Collapse and Fresh Starts: Some Critical Reflections', Development and Change, vol. 33, no. 5., pp.797-815
Incidences of state collapse appear to be on the increase. What does this mean? What are the triggers? What are the implications of collapse both internally and internationally? This study, from the Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, examines these questions and argues that the solutions offered by the international community need to be informed by a understanding of the particular circumstances that gave rise to a state's collapse.
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The final paper in this section explores the relationships between conflict and fiscal institutions. Among other things, it examines the role that bad fiscal management can play in the causes of conflict.

Addison, T. and Murshed, M., 2001. The Fiscal Dimensions of Post-Conflict Reconstruction UNU/WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2001/49
What are the fiscal dimensions of conflict? What are their implications for reconstruction? This paper by the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research examines these questions using research on African conflicts. The authors find that fiscal dimensions are always significant even if they are not always the most important factor, and usually have a regional as well as combatant impact. There needs to be a better understanding of the incentives of fragile-state governments to improve fiscal institutions, and the role that conflict has in affecting their motivation.
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Economic and political economy explanations

No matter what beliefs and ideologies are involved, all armed conflicts are funded by economic activities. Conflict economies develop and can perpetuate the use of violence and create disincentives for peace. Economic relations may become coercive and peacetime economic activities may be disrupted or looted by belligerents. Trade in commodities during conflicts can also interact with and reinforce other causes of conflict, including state weakness and lack of accountability. This section examines each of these issues in turn.

In the late 1990s, a number of academic studies countered popular assumptions that war is irrational or senseless by highlighting the role of personal profit and 'rational choice' in individual motivations for engaging in violence. The following frequently cited article introduces the role of economic motivation in conflict.

Keen, D. 1997, 'A Rational Kind of Madness,' Oxford Development Studies, vol. 25, no. 1, International Development Centre, Oxford
This paper looks into pre-modern history to explain the seemingly senseless nature of war and violence. It is revealed that in history wars have not always been fought for the purposes of winning them. Rather, the goal has been material profit. The economic dimension of warfare has been central for decisions as to whether to start a war or end it. This is argued also in relation to contemporary conflicts. The cases of the civil wars in Sudan and Sierra Leone are considered within this framework.
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Two popular concepts in academic and policy debates on the causes of conflict are 'greed' and 'grievance' as motivating factors for individual engagement in war economies. These are examined in the following document.

Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A., 2004, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War', World Bank, Washington
Are civil wars really caused by political repression, inequality, or religious and ethnic differences? What roles do factors other than grievance play in rebellion? This paper for the World Bank looks at the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. The authors test a `greed’ theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a `grievance’ theory focusing on political factors, concluding that greed considerably outperforms grievance as an explanation of the causes of civil war.
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The following World Bank book goes beyond the greed and grievance arguments, to develop a more comprehensive analysis of conflict causes.

Stern, N. 2003, 'Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy', Policy Research Report, World Bank/Oxford University Press
This document introduces a Policy Research Report from the World Bank on the relationships between civil war and development, citing two reasons for turning international attention to civil wars.
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The next paper provides a useful caution about the potential dangers of rationalist explanations of conflict.

Cramer, 2002, 'Homo Economicus Goes to War: Methodological Individualism, Rational Choice and the Political Economy of War', World Development Vol. 30, No. 11 pp. 1845-1865
Why have neoclassical economic theories of war become popular in recent years among donors and policy-makers? Is there an alternative framework for examining conflict? This paper from the School of Oriental and African Studies claims that orthodox neoclassical economic theories have converged with conflict studies through rational social choice models. It argues that rational social choice theories are based on unconvincing and misleading theoretical and empirical assumptions. In contrast, an alternative approach can be used to understand contemporary wars based on an analysis of social relations from a political economy perspective.
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High value natural resources such as precious minerals can play a significant role in the political economy of war. The key texts below show how the potential to extract huge profits and rents from resources can create incentives for violence. Even where natural resources do not cause the onset of violence, they can become important perpetuating factors as part of the political economy of conflict and by encouraging poor governance.

Ross, M., 2003, 'What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?', University of California, Los Angeles
What is the relationship between natural resources and violent conflict? What causal mechanisms produce these outcomes? This study by the University of California reviews recent cross-national econometric and qualitative studies. It suggests that collectively they imply four underlying regularities in the relationship between natural resources and civil war. There is a wealth of data on causal links in specific conflicts but it is difficult to generalise. There are plausible theories behind each of the patterns, though efforts to test them are still in their infancy. 
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The following paper critically assesses the limitations of resource curse and rentier state explanations of conflict, highlighting the role of politics in determining how resources are exploited.

DiJohn, J., 2003, 'Mineral-Resource Abundance and Violent Political Conflict: A Critical Assessment of the Rentier State Model' Crisis States Working Paper No. 20, Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics, London
How useful is the idea of a 'resource curse' in understanding the causes of conflict in low and middle-income countries? This paper from the Crisis States Programme at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) critically examines this argument on both methodological and empirical grounds. It finds little convincing evidence that mineral abundance in itself causes conflict, and argues that the most influential models of conflict offer only a superficial understanding of the causes of conflict in poor economies.
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This paper draws out the policy implications of resource conflict arguments, and examines the impact of these issues on poverty in Africa.

Karl, T.L. and Gary, I., 2003, 'Bottom of the Barrel: Africa's Oil Boom and the Poor', Catholic Relief Services, Baltimore
How can Africa’s oil boom contribute to alleviating poverty? What policy changes should be implemented to promote the management and allocation of oil revenues such that it will benefit ordinary Africans? This study from the Catholic Relief Services (CRS) assesses the new situation and argues that it offers great opportunity but also great peril for countries beset by wide-scale poverty.
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