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Global Transformations and New Conflicts

Author: M Kaldor and R Luckham
Date: 2001
Size: 21 pages

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Summary

This article from the Institute of Development Studies reviews the characteristics and legacies of post-Cold War conflicts, and the steps for building democratic peace. Although moulded by common global processes, each conflict has its own distinct characteristics.

Most modern conflicts result from a breakdown in the legitimacy of political authority; the effects of globalisation, and powerful economic incentives for dissidents to take up arms against the state. They are generally struggles for control over, or access to, state power rather than against substantive grievances. Most current wars are also based on identity, using pre-existing cleavages (racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious) for political mobilisation. Military victories are now difficult and rare.

Post-Cold War conflicts predominantly involve a wide range of global and regional actors: Major powers; international agencies; neighbouring states; diaspora groups; arms salesmen; mercenaries and criminal networks. Greater access to global and regional institutions could provide greater accountability of external actors to local populations. The authors also observe that:

• The collapse of state authority results in the erosion of the state’s monopoly of violence and taxation; the private use of the state by its rulers; and the increasing exclusivity and dominance of the state organisation.
• New conflicts allow the informalisation of the economy (often based on ethnic networks) and the banalisation of violence and crime - dynamics which are unbound by state borders and hence spread to create ‘war-prone’ areas.
• Societies used to collectivist ideologies, such as socialism and national liberation, and with little experience of contestation, are a good breeding ground for identity-based conflicts.
• Modern warfare sees networks of decentralised, loosely coordinated, fighting groups; low participation; high unemployment and a heavy dependence on external assistance.
• Violence, often by police or paramilitaries, is increasingly directed against civilians as a means of gaining political control over territories; this results in extensive population displacement.
• Warring parties’ main sources of finance are: Seizures of civilian assets; ‘taxation’ of humanitarian assistance; diaspora funding; assistance and intervention by foreign governments, and revenue from illegal trade in valuable commodities.

Democratic governance must go beyond elections, including elements such as rule of law, separation of powers, regulatory frameworks and freedoms of association and expression. In collapsed states international forces may have to temporarily undertake the freezing of conflict, protection of civilians and establishment of rule of law. Other policy relevant implications include:

• The Cold War left a great surplus of weapons and redundant soldiers; demobilisation programmes succeed only if they provide alternative livelihoods for soldiers.
• Since violence often reinforces cleavages and creates momentum where differences and grievances may previously have been only small, peace-building must address both the ‘root causes’ and legacies of the conflict.
• More constructive peace talks must include representatives of alternative political groups (especially democratic groups), and focus on stopping violence based on the situation on the ground, on freezing violence, or on an international presence.
• Since many sources of finance depend on continuing violence, political and economic motives become linked, and warring factions often share a vested interest in war.
• Non-state organised violence must be marginalised whilst state security forces must be restructured and reprofessionalised; focus more on protecting civilians than traditional military tasks; and be subordinated to a democratic authority.
• Public investment in infrastructure, health and education are important, especially where it fosters the integration of opposed groups, or improves conditions for returning refugees.

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Source: Kaldor, M. and Luckham, R. 2001, 'Global Transformations and New Conflicts', IDS Bulletin, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 48-69.
Author: Robin Luckham , r.luckham@ids.ac.uk ; Mary Kaldor , m.h.kaldor@lse.ac.uk
Institute of Development Studies , http://www.ids.ac.uk/ids