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An Economic Interpretation of Conflict in Burundi

Author: F Ngaruko and J-D Nkurunziza
Date: 2000
Size: 40 pages (239 KB)

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Summary

What are the root causes of conflict in Burundi? This report commissioned by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) uses economic and political analyses to investigate the factors of the post-independence conflicts in Burundi. It argues that poverty, exclusion and the fight for control of limited resources have been underlying causes of the violence. To end the recurrence of war, the cycle of predation-rebellion-repression must be broken and there must be an end to impunity for war crimes.

The literature on civil war in Africa proposes various hypotheses on the economic and non-economic causes. In Burundi, a combination of poverty, bad governance and the fight for control of institutions and resources have been the main causes of post-independence conflict. Ethnic and regional factors shape rent collection and sharing, but these alone do not explain the violence. The numerous conflicts in Burundi have been shaped by the political contexts in which they have occurred. Those who start and coordinate rebellions as well as those who control the governments are both motivated by narrow personal or sectarian ambition rather than national or even ethnic group interests.

Burundi has fallen into a conflict trap, whereby each subsequent episode of conflict has its roots in the previous. No government has taken the responsibility to investigate the conflict or prosecute the perpetrators. Instead, governments have partaken in violence.

Other factors contributing to the civil wars are notable:

• Close to 60 % of Burundians lived under the poverty line in 1998. Rebels have financed their activities through forced voluntary contributions and looting.
• The adult literacy rate in 1995 was 65%, suggesting that a number of young Burundian men have a very low level of education. Rebels have been able to recruit uneducated rural youth with poor economic prospects.
• Rebel activity has also been facilitated by the fact that Burundi is overpopulated, increasing pressures on resource, land, and creating more avenues for greed-motivated conflict.
• Burundis hilly terrain has enabled rebel forces to evade government forces.

The Burundi case can best be presented through a model based on three variables: (i) predation, (ii) rebellion of the victims of predation and (iii) repression to deter further rebellion.

• Predatory politics pursued by the closed Burundian bureaucracy is the key underlying cause of conflict. Burundian politic operates around a strong rent-seeking, clientelist system.
• Rent-sharing has benefited some individuals but been harmful to others. This in turn has lead to rebellions by those excluded.
• The victims of predation have rebelled. Rebellions often target innocent civilians because they are not strong enough to confront the army.
• The armys primary role has been the defence of predation, and they have pursued brutal repressive policies in peacetime to send a strong signal to potential future rebellions.
• Since 1993, the rebellion has gained enough power to resist the army, compelling it to share the control over Burundi's institutions. Since 2005, Burundi's government comprises representatives of former rebel groups, which won democratic elections in 2005.

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Source: Nkurunziza J. and Ngaruko F., 2000, ‘An Economic Interpretation of Conflict in Burundi’, Journal of African Economies, no 9, vol. 3, pp. 370-409
Author: Janvier-Désiré Nkurunziza , JNkurunziza@uneca.org