Document Library

Key Text Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire – Soft Landing or Strategic Pause?

Author: International Crisis Group
Date: 2003
Size: 38 pages (346 KB)

Access full text: available online

Summary

The announcement of a ‘code of conduct’ which was reached between the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and the government forces signalled an opportunity for a genuine peace in Nepal. However, each side continued to accuse the other of persistent violations and the situation remains fragile. What are the chances for genuine peace and stability in Nepal? This report by the International Crisis Group lays out the background of the conflict and analyses the positions of the various actors, both domestic and international.

Significant problems for negotiations and lasting peace remain. The three sides - mainstream political parties, the Maoists, and the representatives of King Gyanendra - remain locked in a three-way struggle for public support and strategic position. Each hopes to use the other in its bid to control the state. The potential for miscalculation and renewed bloodshed is considerable. Furthermore, a destabilised state directly between China and India would have serious international implications.

Nepalese society is heavily dominated by the issues of class, caste, ethnicity and geography. Corruption, structural problems and poorly designed and monitored international assistance programs all contribute to economic problems that also fuel the conflict. The major contenders for power and their interests are analysed:

Maoists demand the formation of an interim government in which they would take a part; the hosting of a national roundtable conference that would bring all interested parties to table; and the establishment of a constituent assembly.
Political parties are concerned that they could get marginalised out of the peace talks. They resist lending any legitimacy to the government, have actively engaged with the insurgent Maoists, and suffer from deep internal divisions.
Monarchy has had a difficult time adjusting to a modern role and has been reluctant to stay on the political sidelines. In suspending the democratic process, the monarchy is putting itself in jeopardy.
The Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) has had its limits exposed by the current conflict, but it is crucial for keeping the peace. It remains divided on issues of general reform, links to the monarchy, and compromise with the Maoists.

Genuine compromise, consistent international pressure to make politics more inclusive, and efforts to forge a constitutional framework that promotes rule of law and sound institution building may be the only way forward. The peace negotiations also present an opportunity to assess and change some fundamental questions of governance.

Issues such as corruption, security sector reform, the constitution, political decentralisation, representation of women and ethnic minorities, the king’s role and delivery of foreign aid are all central to negotiations and the future stability of Nepal.
Election or a referendum is what the people of Nepal deserve and need. New leadership is vital to Nepal’s increasingly young population and the opportunity for democratic reforms through a peace process should not be wasted.
The international community can play a deeply influential and positive role in Nepal if it develops a clear policy. Its roles could include observation and verification of the ceasefire and fair elections.

Access full text: available online

Source: International Crisis Group, 2003, ‘Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire – Soft Landing or Strategic Pause?’, Asia Report No. 50, ICG, Brussels
Author: International Crisis Group (ICG), http://www.crisisweb.org