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Democracy and Ethno-religious Conflict in Iraq

Author: A Wimmer
Date: 2003
Size: 24 pages (114.6 KB)

Summary

The seeds of democracy may have difficulty germinating in the sandy soils of Iraq where central political institutions have crumbled. Is Western-style democracy feasible in the current political landscape? What can be done to minimise the ethno-religious elements likely to be unleashed by the democratisation process? Compiled for Survival, this paper explores the rise of the ethnic question in Iraq and the likelihood that democracy will be dominated by the same ethno-religious divisions that have shaped Iraq’s history since independence.

Democracy does not automatically produce inter-ethnic harmony. On the contrary, the very nature of democratic legitimacy provides incentives for formulating ethnic and nationalist claims and mobilising followers along these lines. Unfortunately, Iraq fulfils all conditions for a pervasive and conflictual politicisation of ethnicity. In the absence of trans-ethnic civil society networks, the political power of ethnicity and religion is probably going to be reinforced, not weakened, as democratisation gathers momentum.

Immediate democratisation presents a number of obstacles in a political system like Iraq that has been held together since its inception by coercion and repression. With independence in 1932, the Sunni Arab elite pursued a programme of compulsory assimilation into the mainstream of Arabism and implicitly Sunni Islam, despite the heterogeneous make-up of the Iraqi population and Shia majority.

The rise of pan-Arabism as national ideology and the Arabisation of army, government and administration have always been contested
Exclusion from power on the basis of ethno-religious background gave rise to ever more articulated Kurdish nationalism and a politicised Shi-ism.
The more the ruling Ba’ath regime tried to enforce its vision of a united Arab (Sunni) nation from 1968 onwards, the fiercer resistance became, leading to ever higher levels of repression and domination
Feelings of being ruled and dominated by ‘ethnic others’ were rife among those who refused to melt into the great Arab nation and who were increasingly excluded from power
Democracy entails the danger that the demands of the Kurds, Shia and Sunni leaders spiral up and unleash centripetal forces that cannot be held in check by a weak centre.

Democratisation in a fully ethnicised political landscape such as Iraq must be a bottom-up, slow process rather than the fast, top-down approach favoured by the Bush administration if the radicalisation of ethnic politics is to be minimised.

Rather than rushing to the polls, newly democratising societies need a state monopoly of violence, rule of law, separation of powers and a functioning party system
Citizens need time to adjust their behaviour to the new circumstances, to overcome the all pervasive fear of totalitarian regimes and to develop their own visions of a political future
Organisations such as business groups, trade unions and other civil society actors should be encouraged to emancipate themselves from the tutelage of the Iraqi state and set up their own organisational structure
Foreign policymakers and academic experts favour a power-sharing arrangement or mechanism for ethnic quotas in government and bureaucracy. However, a strong outside hand may be needed to enforce moderation and compromise
Acceptance of electoral results and, most importantly, defeat have often led to the breakdown of democratic experiments hence the support of major political forces and their continued commitment to democracy is necessary if democracy is to succeed.

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Source: Wimmer, A., 2003, ‘Democracy and Ethno-religious Conflict in Iraq’, Survival, 45 (4), 111-134