Document Library

Fragility: Drivers and Consequences

Author: European University Institute
Date: 2009
Size: 23 pages (776 KB)

Access full text: available online

Summary

How can fragility be described and understood? This chapter of the 2009 European Report on Development (ERD) reviews the literature on the main drivers and consequences of fragility, focusing on the relationship between fragility and conflict. It argues that in spite of the diversity of definitions of fragile states, there is consensus that they are characterised by authority, service entitlements and legitimacy failures. Previous armed conflict, poor governance and political instability, militarisation, ethnically and socially heterogeneous and polarised populations are key causes. The circular nature of these various factors is at the heart of the ‘fragility trap’ concept.

There are varied views on which characteristics contribute more to fragility, but a broad consensus exists on the key causes mentioned above. In addition, weak or declining economic performance, demographic stress, low levels of human development, environmental stress, and “bad neighbourhood” factors can have significant impact. Drivers of fragility are often self and mutually-reinforcing. 

Fragility is often connected to conflict. The chances of success in reducing the severity of armed conflicts or preventing their outbreak impinge on proper understanding of their root causes and triggering factors. While there is little agreement around this key issue, income differences have received considerable attention as triggering factors of conflict. It is suggested that the fight against war and threats to international security requires a sustained reduction in poverty. Though seemingly plausible and intuitive, the argument that poverty is the main cause of instability is based on weak empirical grounds.

The academic literature recognises the need to provide a theoretical framework to understand the main causes of fragility, and to rethink and revisit existing results. Some of these results have had a tremendous – though possibly misleading – impact on policy making. A discussion on the causes of conflicts is still needed. The ERD 2009 provides the theoretical framework needed to understand why some countries are trapped in instability and violent conflicts. From a methodological perspective, it aims to overcome the econometric pitfalls in previous literature on the determinants of civil war and conflicts.

Fragility is a challenge for aid effectiveness. The specific aid effectiveness challenges in situations of fragility and conflict have only recently been acknowledged. Findings that aid works in ‘good policy environments’ led many policymakers to disburse aid to countries with good institutions. This approach may however expose fragile countries to the risk of becoming ‘aid orphans’. Fragile states also have characteristics that make them more vulnerable than other recipient countries. Further issues to consider in relation to state fragility include the following:

• Is fragility a threat to international security? Existing empirical evidence does not support the notion of a direct causal link between fragile countries and transnational threats. Yet relatively little empirical analysis has been conducted. Analysis of threats induced by fragility needs to operate on a case by case basis.

• The challenges of the security/development nexus: These include the organisational challenge, the securitisation of development work and the unintended security implications of development aid.

• The impact on gender issues: The concern in the ERD 2009 is to examine policy approaches that can move women from a victimised situation to being active participants in development.

Access full text: available online

Source: European University Institute, 2009, 'Fragility: Drivers and Consequences', in Development in a Context of Fragility: Focus on Africa, European Report on Development, 2009, European University Institute and the European Commission, ch. 2.
Author: European Report on Development, http://erd.eui.eu/