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Elections in Fragile States: Between Voice and Violence

Author: Timothy D. Sisk
Date: 2008
Size: 24 pages (149 KB)

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Summary

What factors generate election-related violence in fragile states? How can the international community address these? This study from the University of Denver suggests that social structure, political competition, the competence of the electoral administration and the degree of professionalism in the security sector contribute to election-related violence. International influence at mid-rank levels among the perpetrators of violence is limited. Donors therefore need to take a pragmatic approach by working with parties to develop pre-election peace pledges and by tracking violent incidents.

Electoral processes in war-prone societies present particular problems. Elections provide opportunities for participation in governance and they can help manage political competition through non-violent procedures. However, the campaign, voting and the proclamation phases of elections are frequently accompanied by violence. In recent times, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Colombia, Guyana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Zimbabwe have all witnessed violence with widespread consequences.

Election-related violence is distinctive. The strategic intent and practical consequences of violent acts are designed to affect the election processes. They are intended to disrupt opposing forces in order to win at the polls. Violence is used to influence voting behaviour through threat or intimidation. Sometimes, it invalidates the elections altogether by undermining the integrity of the results.

How well an electoral system functions depends on the stakes of electoral competition. This is particularly true in weak states where access to power through elections generates incentives to use violence when other means of mobilisation fail. The paper finds that:

• The structure, balance, composition and professionalism of the electoral management body are key components in successful electoral processes that generate legitimate, accepted outcomes.
• A legitimate electoral process should be free and fair in political and administrative terms, include all elements of society through a law of citizenship and voter registration and offer real choices to the population.
• Agents of electoral violence are often found in the mid-level cadres of party-political organisations where individuals organise and maintain collective violence.
• While the international community can anticipate the likelihood of election-related violence and engage in early action to prevent its escalation, there are limits to the success of these measures.

The ways in which electoral systems affect conflict dynamics are relatively well known, but how international assistance can engage in election-related conflict prevention is less understood. There are deep and enduring dilemmas between the objectives of democratisation and imperatives of conflict prevention. Policymakers should note that:

• It is important to address simultaneously the electoral system and its incentives for fomenting violence at various stages of the electoral cycle and for generating spoilers.
• Extensive election monitoring is essential to ensure free and fair outcomes and to mitigate the tensions that arise from widespread perceptions of stolen elections.
• Working with parties to develop pre-election peace pledges, backed by violence monitoring, are the most pragmatic approaches given limits to international engagement at the mid-rank levels.

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Source: Sisk, T., 2008, 'Elections in Fragile States: Between Voice and Violence', Paper prepared for the International Studies Association Annual Meeting San Francisco, California, March 24-28, 2008
Author: Timothy D. Sisk , timothy.sisk[at]du.edu