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Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link

Author: N P Gleditsch and I Salehyan
Date: 2007
Size: 2 pages (35.5KB)

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Summary

This paper from the International Peace Academy argues that climate change is likely to lead to mass exodus from uninhabitable areas, placing significant burdens on migrant receiving areas, although adaptation is more likely than armed conflict in the absence of exacerbating political and social factors. Climate change warrants consideration by the United Nations (UN) as a potential security threat. Responses should include improving disaster preparedness, mitigating the risks of refugee flows, supporting migrant receiving areas and a new UN international agreement on migration.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents a majority viewpoint that recent temperature rises are unprecedented and hard to explain without reference to human activity. Impacts on biodiversity, agriculture and water supply will certainly alter patterns of consumption, production and settlement. It is plausible that violent conflict could emerge as a result.

Long, uncertain causal chains from climate change to conflict lead policy advocates to speculation. While it is impossible to assign credible probabilities to extreme outcomes, preparation must be rooted in firm theoretical foundations.

• Worst case scenario: Relatively abrupt changes in temperature could lead wealthy nations to fortify their borders to preserve resources. Less fortunate countries may initiate struggles over food, water or energy.
• Best case scenario: A minority of scholars argue that the evidence for long-term temperature rise is not enough to act at present. Human welfare would be better served by health measures that promise to save thousands of lives at low cost.
• Middle scenario: This assumes IPCC forecasts are correct and that a substantial element of warming is due to human activities. Though consequences may be less dramatic than the worst case scenario, action is needed to preserve economic growth, meet basic needs and mitigate negative effects.

Recommendations focus on what can be done to prevent environment-induced migration leading to conflict:

• Responding to environmental pressures and preparing for shifting settlement patterns should be high on the UN agenda. Calling a special session of the UN General Assembly would foster global dialogue.
• Referring the matter to the Security Council would imply a wider interpretation of security. The UN should face climate change as a crisis that threatens the security of its member states and humanity, even if armed conflict is not a major component of that threat.
• Relevant policy measures include: Moving people from flood plains, developing cleaner energy technologies, fostering efficient irrigation and water consumption and improving shelters, disaster preparedness and response.
• Locating refugees away from conflict zones and preventing infiltration of arms into refugee communities would mitigate the risks of environmental refugee flows. Productive employment would provide a meaningful alternative to violence.
• Dialogue with local communities would address economic and social concerns in areas receiving environmental migrants. Steps may include preventing discrimination in the workplace, ensuring access to services, revising citizenship laws, promoting tolerance and facilitating civic awareness among immigrant communities.
• The UN needs a new international agreement on migration including legal measures on the rights of migrants, refugees from combat zones and environmental migration. The current UN Refugee Convention is outdated and ambiguous.

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Source: Gleditsch, N.P., Nords, R. and Salehyan, I. 2007, 'Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link', Coping With Crisis Working Paper Series, New York: International Peace Academy, New York
Author: Nils Petter Gleditsch , nilspg@prio.no