Chapter 3 - Preventing and managing violent conflict

Preventing violent conflict: theory and approaches

Introduction 

The prevention of violent conflict, often referred to as ‘conflict prevention’, refers to approaches, methods and mechanisms used to avoid, minimise, and/or contain potential violent conflicts; and in post-conflict environments, to prevent violent conflict from re-emerging. Prevention is critical for avoiding the devastation and immense human suffering associated with war. It is also prudent as the financial and political costs of managing conflict are much higher once violent conflict has already erupted. In addition, there are a broader range of response options available before conflict has fully escalated.  Conflict prevention has also been found to be effective. A reported decline in armed conflict since the Cold War has been attributed in part because of an extraordinary increase in activism by the international community directed toward conflict prevention, peacemaking and peacebuilding (Human Security Report 2005).

Prevention approaches and mechanisms are generally classified as direct/operational prevention or structural prevention, although there is often overlap. The former refers to short term actions taken to prevent the often imminent escalation of potential conflict (e.g. workshops, dialogue, confidence-building measures, sanctions, coercive diplomacy, special envoys, preventive deployment); whereas structural prevention entails long term interventions that aim to transform key socioeconomic, political and institutional factors that if left unaddressed, could lead to violent conflict in the future.  These long term preventive mechanisms overlap with approaches adopted in the aftermath of conflict in order to prevent a renewal of violence. The UN has introduced a third category of conflict prevention, 'systemic prevention', to describe measures that address trans-national conflict risks.

Most preventive action has been taken in a small number of high-profile cases concentrated in Europe and the Middle East. Asia has received comparatively little attention. The most common tools for early prevention are verbal pronouncements and facilitation; coercive measures are very rarely used.

Conflict prevention is now official policy in the UN, the EU, the G-8 and in many states.  It has been successfully applied in a range of places at the national level, including in South Africa, Macedonia, the Baltic states, Crimea, and the South China Sea.  The many successful violence prevention efforts on the community and sub-national level, often remain invisible. Much conflict literature emphasises that despite these developments, conflict prevention has not been pursued sufficiently. There is still a lack of strategy and capacity for prevention efforts, and inadequate local knowledge and local networks. In order to fill the gap between conflict prevention rhetoric and practice, prevention needs to become a full-time professional and governmental endeavour.  Only then, it is believed, can the devastating impacts of violent conflict be systematically avoided.

Öberg, M., Möller, F. and Wallensteen, P., 2009, 'Early Conflict Prevention in Ethnic Crises 1990-98: A New Dataset', Conflict Management and Peace Science, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 67-91
What are the trends in and effects of early conflict prevention during the escalation of ethnic crises? This article uses a new dataset to analyse operational conflict prevention measures prior to the outbreak of war in intrastate ethnic conflicts between 1990 and 1998. Most preventive action is focused on a few high profile cases, and Asia in particular receives little attention. Diplomatic measures and relief efforts both have conflict dampening effects, while carrots (inducements) increase the likelihood of war. Other measures show no significant effects. Expectations about the effectiveness of coercive preventive measures may thus be overstated.
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Swanström, N.L.P. and Weissmann, M. S., 2005, ‘Conflict, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management and Beyond: A Conceptual Exploration’, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Programme, Washington, DC and Nacka, Sweden
What are the interpretational differences in conflict, conflict prevention and conflict management? How do we come to terms with the lack of consensus within the academic and policy community? This paper provides an overview of the conceptual terms. Traditional assumptions are challenged with the three concepts viewed as inter-related rather than as separate. An integrated, holistic approach is recommended.
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Human Security Centre, 2005, ‘Human Security Report: War and Peace in the 21st Century’, Human Security Centre, Vancouver
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OECD, 2011, ‘Investing in Security: A Global Assessment of Armed Violence Reduction Initiatives’, Conflict and Fragility Series, OECD Publishing, Paris
What works and what does not in armed violence reduction and prevention? To begin to address this question, this report draws on a large-scale mapping of AVRP activities around the world, focusing on programming trends in the varied contexts of Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Liberia, South Africa and Timor-Leste. The most promising AVRP activities are based on inter-sectoral partnerships and operate simultaneously at local and national levels. Development agencies need to adopt integrated approaches to AVRP, and link the AVRP agenda to the promotion of peacebuilding and statebuilding.
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Conflict prevention theory and approaches

There are ongoing attempts to develop conflict prevention into a proper discipline. For example, Lund has attempted to develop theory and methodology for prevention, designed to help in determining the appropriate mix of tools in varying stages of conflict and contexts. He identifies the key stages as: latent conflict, manifest limited conflict, and escalating violent conflict. He argues that structural prevention interventions (e.g. helping specific governments to address socioeconomic sources of conflicts or institutional and policy deficits that keep countries from addressing tensions meaningfully and peacefully) are most appropriate in earlier (latent) stages. There is a greater likelihood of being able to implement more far-reaching measures during latent conflict stages, as there are lower levels of inter-party and societal suspicion and mistrust. At later stages, the aim is more often direct prevention, aimed at preventing or containing escalation and the hardening of positions. Wallensteen has developed a methodology to measure effectiveness, in order to help ensure that conflict prevention interventions are tailored to achieve best results.

Theory and methodology

Lund, M. S., 2009, ‘Conflict Prevention: Theory in Pursuit of Policy and Practice’, in The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution, eds., J. Bercovitch, V. Kremenyuk, and I. W. Zartman, SAGE, London, pp. 287-308
Why does there seem to be a gap between the promise and the actual pursuit of conflict prevention? How can decision makers devise effective conflict prevention policies? This chapter reviews the concepts, activities, and impacts of conflict prevention, focusing on the ‘primary prevention’ of prospective new conflicts. Policymakers need to consolidate lessons learned from past experience, and apply that knowledge to weak states through multilateral country consultations with key actors to develop jointly formulated, multifaceted conflict prevention strategies.
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Wallensteen, P. and Möller, F., 2004, ‘Conflict Prevention: Methodology for Knowing the Unknown’ Uppsala Peace Research Papers, no. 7, Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University, Uppsala 
What are the most effective means of preventing violent conflict from escalating into war? How do you develop a theory of conflict prevention? This study looks at the research on conflict prevention and proposes a more effective way of analysing it. It argues that if conflict prevention strategies are to be improved, there must be a more nuanced understanding of why current strategies fail or succeed.
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International and donor approaches

International organisations and donor agencies have developed their own approaches and guidelines to conflict prevention. They include the use of aid to address the structural causes of conflict as well as joined-up approaches to a range of development, trade, foreign policy and security issues involving coordination across departments.

United Nations Secretary General, 2004, 'A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility', Report of the Secretary-General's High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change
The changes that have taken place in the world since the Millennium Declaration demand that consensus be revitalised on key challenges and priorities. What are these and how can they best be achieved? This report argues that security, development and human rights must be advanced together, otherwise none will succeed. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be met by 2015, but only if all governments dramatically increase their efforts.  The report also commits the United Nations to strengthen international regimes and norms to support prevention of armed conflict. 
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United Nations, 2006, 'Progress Report on the Prevention of Armed Conflict: Report of the Secretary General', United Nations, New York
While a culture of conflict prevention is taking hold at the United Nations (UN), an unacceptable gap remains between rhetoric and practice. This progress report examines the current status of conflict prevention at international and national operational, structural and systemic levels. All relevant actors need to accept and act upon the principles of shared vulnerability and mutual responsibility so that conflict prevention becomes a deeply-rooted norm embraced at all levels of the community of nations.
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Bellamy, A., 2008, 'Conflict Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect', Global Governance, no. 2 (April–June), pp. 135–156
Why has conflict prevention been neglected in the ongoing debates over global security? This article examines attitudes toward the international community’s responsibility to prevent conflict since the publication in 2001 of the report The Responsibility to Protect.  In explaining the relative neglect of prevention in debates about The Responsibility to Protect, it argues that the answer can be found in a combination of doubts about how wide the definition of prevention should be, political concerns raised by the use of prevention in the war on terrorism, and practical concerns about the appropriate institutional locus for responsibility.
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DFID, 2007, 'Preventing Violent Conflict', UK Government Policy Paper, Department for International Development, London
How can government development agencies play a part in tackling the problems that contribute to violent conflict? This paper seeks to show how DFID understands and responds to conflict across the breadth of its work. It proposes to place a greater emphasis on resolving conflict before it becomes violent, to make its response to armed conflict more effective by improving its support to peace processes and enhancing the conflict-management capacity of relevant bodies, and to make its development work more ‘conflict-sensitive’. The paper includes case studies from Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, Uganda, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sudan and Yemen.
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Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2001, 'Helping Prevent Violent Conflict', OECD, Paris
All development cooperation strategies and programmes must help societies to manage tensions and disputes without resorting to violence. How can international donors best promote peace-building and post-conflict reconciliation? A task force, established in 1995 by the OECD's Development Assistance Committee, has produced detailed guidelines covering the design and implementation of development cooperation for conflict prevention and post-conflict recovery. Development cooperation must be coherent, comprehensive, integrated and aimed at helping address the root causes of conflicts.
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For resources and discussion on the responsibility to protect, see the peacekeeping and peace support operations section of this guide.

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