Chapter 3 - Preventing and managing violent conflict

Preventing violent conflict: early warning, direct prevention and structural prevention

Early warning and early response systems

Conflict prevention requires careful monitoring of indicators of rising tensions and taking measures to ease them. Early warning consists of data collection, risk analysis, and the transmission of information with recommendations to targeted recipients.  Early response systems refer to timely and appropriate prevention initiatives, usually undertaken during latent stages of perceived potential violent conflict.  Early warning and early response systems have been adopted by international organisations, bi-lateral agencies, research institutions and NGOs.

There is much critique, however, that early warning has not translated into early or effective response. While the formulation of accurate predictions is challenging, the more difficult aspect has been persuading political leaders and the public to act upon warnings. Often civil society organisations end up playing the dual role of warning as well as implementing measures in response. 

Some analysts stress the need to recognise that early warning is inherently political – in terms of ‘who is warning whom and to what end?’, and in terms of which warnings are heeded.  It has also been emphasised that early warning must monitor human security indicators that include protection of gender and minority rights.  Notable violations of such rights can be indicators of rising tensions and incipient conflict. Recent research on regional organisations suggests that the key constraint facing early warning systems is not lack of quality data, but rather organisational weaknesses and internal political divisions.

Concepts and guidance

Nyheim, D., 2009, 'Preventing Violence, War and State Collapse: The Future of Conflict Early Warning and Response ', Development Co-operation Directorate - Policy Division, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Paris
Are early warning and response systems prepared for the conflicts of the future? This report from the OECD reviews recent literature on early warning and response to assess their value and their role in the prevention of violent conflict and for peacebuilding. It concludes that early warning and response systems require further support to ensure their future relevance.
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Matveeva A., 2006, ‘Early Warning and Early Response: Conceptual and Empirical Dilemmas’, Issue Paper, no. 1, Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC), European Centre for Conflict Prevention, The Hague
How can early warning and response systems be improved? This study from the European Centre for Conflict Prevention suggests that although a rich literature exists on how early warning and response should be carried out, little is known about how early warning actually happens. There needs to be a community of practice where the issues and dilemmas of early warning and response can be refined, experiences shared and empirical theory built from practice.
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Wulf, H. and Debiel, T., 2010, 'Systemic Disconnects: Why Regional Organisations Fail to Use Early Warning and Response Mechanisms', Global Governance, vol. 16, no. 4., pp. 525–547.
Why there is a gap between warning and response in many conflicts? Why do regional organisations not use early warning and response (EWR) mechanisms more effectively? Current EWR mechanisms have four key weaknesses to address; they need to adequately consider causal chains, the local space, the impact of small events, and under what conditions they can be effectively replicated. Regional organisations do not use EWR effectively because of political interest, institutional rigidity, a lack of information that is tailor-made for decision-makers, and a lack of capacity. Concepts need to be developed on the precise role of regional organisations in EWR.    
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Brown, S., Doe, S. G., Nyheim, D., Rosenblum-Kumar, G., and Shanahan, Y., 2005, ‘Early Warning and Early Response Handbook’, Conflict Prevention and Post-Conflict Reconstruction Network
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Goldstone, J. A., 2008, ‘Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability’, Special Report, no. 204, United States Institute of Peace, Washington
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Mitchell, A. with Smith, E. M., 2011, 'Disaster Risk Management for Insecure Contexts', Action Contre la Faim, Paris
This paper demonstrates how the integration of disaster risk management (DRM) with insecurity programming can expand the scope of risk management to the mutual benefit of communities and aid agencies. DRM programming has to be ‘conflict sensitive’ and peace-building has to be ‘hazard-proof’. The common objectives and the combined impact of the various approaches to DRM, IP and relief and recovery operations can be harnessed to develop a long-term strategy leading to peace and resilience to all forms of threats and hazards. The integration of these approaches would lead to more streamlined operations and a more efficient use of funds. Programming can be adapted to many insecure contexts by using a graduated management system based on multi-hazard threats surveillance and an early warning system.
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Minority rights and gender early warning indicators

Baldwin, C., Chapman, C., and Gray, Z., 2007, ‘Minority Rights: The Key to Conflict Prevention’, Minority Rights Group International, London 
Minority issues lie at the heart of many of the world’s conflicts. Yet minority rights are often marginalised in peace processes and conflict prevention programmes. This study, by the Minority Rights Group, looks at Chechnya, Darfur, Kashmir, Kosovo and Sri Lanka. Understanding the warning signs provided by minority rights violations could prevent conflicts. Groups should not be separated along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines as a way of creating peace, as such divisions can entrench old hatreds and wounds in the long term.
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Srinivasan, S., 2006, 'Minority Rights, Early Warning and Conflict Prevention: Lessons from Darfur', Minority Rights Group International, London
What lessons can we learn from international engagement in the conflict in Darfur? This paper from Minority Rights International analyses events in the terms of structural and operational conflict prevention. It argues that the catalogue of political and institutional failures before and during the civil war indicates a need to address minority rights issues at every stage of conflict prevention. Institutional improvements in conflict prevention and early warning mechanisms will help avoid repeating the mistakes of Darfur in the future.
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Schmeidl, S., with Piza-Lopez, E., 2002, 'Gender and Conflict Early Warning: A Framework for Action', International Alert, London
This paper is divided into two: part one offers a brief overview of definitions, processes and development of conflict early warning, and part two examines links between gender and early warning, and identifies areas where the integration of a gender perspective can improve existing models. By drawing on the experiences of a number of different conflicts throughout the world, a list of gender- sensitive early warning indicators are proposed for the purpose of verification and expansion. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future research and action, with particular emphasis on conducting empirical tests on the assumptions put forth.
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Direct prevention mechanisms

Preventative diplomacy

The term, ‘preventive diplomacy’ was coined by UN Secretary General Hammarskjöld in the 1960s and referred to preventing the escalation of Cold War proxy wars in developing countries into global confrontations.  After the end of the Cold War, attention shifted to the threat of internal wars. Secretary General Boutros-Ghali adapted the term then to mean not simply keeping regional conflicts from going global, but using diplomatic techniques (i.e. diplomatic persuasion, sometimes combined with military intervention) to prevent armed conflict between or within nations from arising in the first place.

Zartman, W., 2001, ‘Preventing Deadly Conflict’, Security Dialogue, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 137-154
How can deadly conflict be prevented? This article from Security Dialogue examines the choice of decisions taken in escalating deadly conflict in Lebanon, Liberia, Somalia, Zaire, Haiti and Yugoslavia. It analyses the characteristics of alternative policies to begin the process of creating a new polity out of conflict, the incentives and disincentives required for such policies and the reasons for their rejection at the time. Opportunities tend to constitute a period of time in the life of the conflict when preventive diplomacy is possible, after which entry becomes much more difficult.
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Stedman, S. J., 1995, ‘Alchemy for a New World Order: Overselling Preventive Diplomacy?’, Foreign Affairs, May/June
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Lund, M., 1995, ‘Under-rating Preventive Diplomacy: A Reply to Stedman’, Foreign Affairs, July/August
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Incentives and Sanctions

International policy makers often use incentives, sanctions and conditionality as tools to influence the behaviour of key conflict actors and to alter conflict dynamics.  Incentive-based measures include economic incentives (e.g. development aid), political incentives (e.g. diplomatic relations, recognition in international/multilateral institutions such as the EU), and security guarantees. Targeted sanctions, which have been the subject of increasing attention, focus on applying direct pressure on individuals who have political decision-making power in governments and groups that are parties to the conflict. This is considered to be an effective mechanism, and avoids the infliction of harm on the broader civilian population.

Some conflict analysts argue that incentives and sanctions, on their own, are unlikely to be sufficient to shift parties into the constructive problem-solving mode that is usually necessary for successful prevention.  As such, they should be regarded and enforced as part of a comprehensive peacemaking strategy.

Griffiths, A. and Barnes, C., eds., 2008, ‘Powers of Persuasion: Incentives, Sanctions and Conditionality in Peacemaking’, Accord, no, 19, Conciliation Resources, London, pp. 4-23
Do sanctions, incentives and conditionality support or undermine the peace process? This edition of Accord assesses whether these instruments can persuade conflict parties to engage in peacemaking. Used effectively, these tools can tip the balance towards a settlement by increasing the costs of fighting and rewarding peace. But unless developed as part of a coherent and strategic approach to peacemaking they can be ineffective and have sometimes exacerbated tensions and fuelled conflict. Sanctions, incentives and conditionality must be responsive to parties’ own motivations and support pre-existing conditions for conflict resolution.
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Eriksson, M., 2008, ‘Operational Conflict Prevention and the Use of Targeted Sanctions: Conditions for Effective Implementation by the EU and UN’, Centre on International Cooperation, New York University, New York
How can the international community improve the management and implementation of targeted sanctions? This paper from New York University suggests that targeted sanctions have the potential to be an effective tool in conflict prevention and management. However, sanctions policy and practice is in need of major reform to ensure better implementation, coordination and evaluation.
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For resources on ‘peace conditionalities’, see the conflict negotiation section of this guide.

Peacemaking - Dialogue

Dialogue is considered a critical tool in peacemaking. It differs from mediation and negotiation in that dialogue is process-focussed and does not aim to produce a resolution or formal agreement.  The purpose of dialogue rather is to get conflicting parties to talk, to build up trust and to transform relationships. It is a long term inclusive process that can occur at political and community levels. It requires a safe space for parties to come together, to self-reflect and to speak their mind. It demands a willingness to address root causes; to recognise one another’s humanity and demonstrate empathy; to recognise differences and commonalities; and to show a capacity to change.  Dialogue is not appropriate in situations where violence, hate and mistrust are too strong that they block any movement toward consensus; or where there is an imbalance of power. 

Inter-faith dialogue has been receiving growing attention as a potentially effective way to counter negative stereotypes of the ‘other’ and to develop trusting relationships.  It aims to defuse inter-faith tensions that could cause future conflict or that derive from prior conflict. Other forms of religious peacemaking include religious activism, whereby religious actors directly oppose repression and seek to promote peace and reconciliation, for example the civil disobedience of the Buddhist monks in Burma (Myanmar); and mediation and facilitation by religious leaders. The incorporation of religion in peacemaking, which has traditionally been a secular arena, is in part due to the recognition that many cultures are heavily influenced by religion and thus people from such cultures may be more open to religious peacemaking efforts.

Dialogue, and peacemaking more generally, is not an end in itself however. Larger structural causes of conflict also need to be addressed.  Still, aspects of dialogue – such as inclusiveness, can reflect some the elements of structural change required. 

Dialogue

Mirimanova, N., 2009, ‘Mediation and Dialogue: Official and Unofficial Strands’, Case Study: Lessons from South Caucasus, Initiative for Peacebuilding Cluster, International Alert, London
How effective is mediation and dialogue in protracted violent conflict? This paper explores approaches to and formats of mediation and dialogue, and the relevance and effectiveness of these strategies in the context of protracted violent conflicts, particularly in the South Caucasus. Mediation and dialogue cannot be contained in an ivory tower and need to be placed in a real-life conflict context characterised by violence, mistrust, political opportunism, vengeance and systemic injustice. The EU needs to develop a more nuanced understanding of the interplay of mediation and dialogue and the conflict context in which it operates.
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Pruitt, B. and Thomas, P., 2007, 'Democratic Dialogue: A Handbook for Practitioners', General Secretariat of the Organization of American States , Washington; International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm; United Nations Development Programme, New York
What is dialogue and how can it respond to the need for wider participation in the public sphere? The first section of this handbook from CIDA, International IDEA, OAS and the UNDP outlines the need for dialogue and how it can make a difference in pursuit of peace, development and democratic governance. Dialogue processes involve inclusiveness, joint ownership, learning, humanity and a long-term view. They facilitate change by enabling people to gain perspective on their own thoughts, and on the way their thought processes shape their perceptions of reality.
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UNDP, 2009, ‘Why Dialogue Matters for Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding’, Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations Development Programme, New York
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Religious peacemaking

Smock, D.R., ed., 2006, 'Religious Contributions to Peacemaking: When Religion Brings Peace, Not War,' United States Institute of Peace, Washington
The threat of religious extremism is real and well documented, but the contribution that religion can make to peacemaking—as the flip side of religious conflict—is only beginning to be explored and explicated. This selection of studies edited by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) explores and analyses a number of case studies of faith-based interventions in peacemaking. It finds that faith-based institutions can engage in some of the most pressing conflict issues, particularly in religiously based conflicts.
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Harpviken, K. B. and Røislien, H. E., 2008, ‘Faithful Brokers? Potentials and Pitfalls of Religion in Peacemaking', Conflict Resolution Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 351-373
What potential do religious actors have for acting as constructive peacemakers? How does the fundamental identity of the peace broker affect the chances of success? This article in Conflict Resolution Quarterly examines the role of religious actors in peacemaking. Three facets of religion – norms, identity, and organisation – are analysed. Each may feed into the emergence or escalation of conflict, and each is in itself transformed through exposure to armed conflict. Similarly, each facet forms part of the peacemaking potential of religious actors. Religious brokers may be of three distinct types: the 'liaison', the 'coordinator', and the 'representative'. Religious actors should not be assumed to have inherent peacemaking capability, but religion is an integral dimension of most attempts to foster peace and must not be neglected.
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Smock, D. and Huda, Q., 2009, ‘Islamic Peacemaking Since 9/11’, Special Report, no. 218, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC
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Smock, D., 2008, ‘Religion in World Affairs: Its Role in Conflict and Peace’ Special Report, no. 201, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC
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For additional resources on peacemaking, see the ending violent conflict component of this guide.

Structural prevention

Structural conflict prevention comprises long term interventions that aim to transform key socioeconomic, political and institutional factors that if left unaddressed, could lead to violent conflict in the future. This encompasses a broad range of factors, including but not limited to: addressing inequality, exclusion and marginalisation; developing social capital and social cohesion; promoting livelihoods, local development and economic opportunities; and promoting legitimate and equitable political, justice and security institutions.

Many of these interventions are similar to those undertaken to promote peacebuilding: see the peacebuilding component of this topic guide.  In addition, for discussion and resources on local conflict management, see the non-violence and local conflict management section in the ending violent conflict component of this guide.

Additional resources

For discussion and resources on state-building, see the GSDRC’s fragile states topic guide.  For materials on equitable service delivery, see the service delivery and fragile states topic guides.

For discussion and resources on promoting democracy, political participation and voice and accountability, see the GSDRC’s political systems and voice and accountability topic guides. For materials on the promotion of human rights, rule of law and access to justice and security, see the human rights and justice topic guides.

For discussion and resources on promoting social inclusion and social protection, see the GSDRC’s social exclusion and social protection topic guides.

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