Chapter 1 - Understanding violent conflict

The causes of conflict (part 2)

Socioeconomic factors

Inequality, exclusion and marginalisation

There is increasing recognition that it is the nature of inequality, rather than the extent of inequality, that determines the likelihood of violent conflict. Research has found that inequalities that align with cultural, ethnic or religious identities (‘horizontal inequalities’) are more likely to result in violence. This is especially the case when there are ‘multidimensional horizontal inequalities’ – where culturally defined groups experience multiple forms of exclusion from political, economic, social and cultural realms. Often these forms of inequality, exclusion and marginalisation interact and compound one another: unequal access to land and natural resources, for example, may result from the lack of access to power and decision-making.

A strong sense of collective injustice, due to actual or perceived exclusion based on social or cultural identity, can increase a group’s feelings of alienation from the wider society. This may lead to animosity and resentment. Over time, such tensions can foster group mobilisation and fuel violent conflict.  It is not only the relatively deprived who may instigate violence, however, but also the privileged who fear losing power and benefits.  

Government responses are important in determining whether dissatisfaction turns violent. If the state reacts harshly to non-violent protests, as opposed to seeking to address exclusion, then the chances of violent conflict are more likely.  Exclusion and inequality as a cause of conflict may be connected to the breakdown of the social contract, discussed under political and institutional factors.

Kanbur, R., 2007, ‘Poverty and Conflict: The Inequality Link‘, International Peace Academy, New York
How do poverty and inequality causally interact with conflict? While there is a general view that poverty and inequality can lead to conflict, the nature of the links are less well appreciated. This paper draws out the links based on the recent economics literature and discusses their implications for policy. While inequality is a natural concomitant of economic processes, particularly those driven by the market, its implications for security emerge when unequal outcomes align with socio-political cleavages.
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Sen, A., 2008, 'Violence, Identity and Poverty', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 45, pp.5-15
How do we explain the cause of violence in the world today? This article argues that approaches to explaining violence should avoid isolationist programmes that explain violence solely in terms of social inequality and deprivation, or in terms of identity and cultural factors. The coupling between cultural identities and poverty increases the significance of inequality and can contribute to violence.
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Stewart F., Brown G.K., Langer A., 2008, 'Major Findings and Conclusions on the Relationship Between Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict', in Stewart, F. (ed.), ‘Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies’, Palgrave Macmillan
What are the links between horizontal inequalities (HIs) and conflict? This chapter summarises findings from case studies plus more global analyses. Severe HIs are particularly likely to be a source of conflict when they are consistent across socioeconomic, cultural and political dimensions. While socioeconomic HIs generate fertile ground for conflict and cultural status inequalities bind groups together, political HIs provide incentives for leaders to mobilise people for rebellion.
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Human Rights in China, 2007, ‘China: Minority Exclusion, Marginalisation and Rising Tensions’, Minority Rights Group, London
Over the past twenty-five years, China has undergone rapid social and economic change. This report argues that this transformation has exposed the Chinese government’s negative policies towards minorities. Key issues preventing minorities from exercising their rights include limited political participation, inequitable development and inadequate protection of minority cultural identity.
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McCoy, D., 2008, ‘Rectifying Horizontal Inequalities: Lessons from African Conflict’, African Journal on Conflict Resolution, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 105-134
How can countries emerging from conflict create sustainable peace and stability? This article argues countries must address the horizontal inequalities that cause many violent conflicts. The examples of Mali and Rwanda illustrate steps countries can take to rectify horizontal inequalities in post-conflict environments, providing long term conflict resolution.
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For further discussion and resources, see the underlying causes of conflict in the GSDRC’s social exclusion guide.

Poverty and conflict

Conflict and poverty are clearly linked - a disproportionate number of conflicts take place in poor countries. The direction of causality has been debated, however. Most research contends that poverty, in itself, is rarely a direct cause of conflict; yet it is evident that conflict exacerbates poverty (see impact of conflict). Most authors now contend that it is relative deprivation, rather than poverty per se, that makes violent conflict more likely. Poverty may contribute to or sustain conflict through its association with perceived injustices and forms of exclusion between groups (see inequality, exclusion and marginalisation). In some specific contexts, there is evidence that extreme poverty has provided the motivation for effective recruitment and mobilisation of the masses.

Goodhand, J., 2001, ‘Violent Conflict, Poverty and Chronic Poverty, Working Paper, no. 6, Chronic Poverty Research Centre, Manchester
What is the nature of links between conflict and poverty? What are the implications of academic debate for policy and future research? This paper provides an overview of the literature on chronic poverty and conflict. Traditionally the concepts of chronic poverty and violent conflict have been treated as separate spheres. It is argued that poverty and conflict are linked. Violent conflict is not a side issue and needs to be better understood in order to achieve development goals.
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Justino, P., 2009, ‘The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses’, HiCN Working Paper, no. 61, Households in Conflict Network, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton
How does armed conflict impact on households and how do they respond to and cope with it? This paper examines the direct and indirect effects of conflicts and shows that the indirect effects are channelled through markets, political institutions and social networks. Until there is more research on the fundamental processes linking armed civil conflict and household welfare, it will be difficult to develop effective policies for preventing and resolving conflicts.
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Resource and environmental factors

Greed and opportunity in war

Regardless of the beliefs, ideologies and grievances involved, all armed conflicts must be funded.  Such funding often comes from illicit sources and activities.  Economic relations may become coercive during armed conflict and peacetime economic activities may be looted by belligerents. Illicit trade in commodities (see next section on resource exploitation) during conflicts can reinforce other causes of conflict, including state weakness and lack of accountability.

While many conflicts are clearly motivated by political or social issues, others are mainly economically motivated.  Some conflicts start due to political and social motives but are prolonged due to economic motivations (‘greed’), which creates disincentives for peace.  In the current conflict in Columbia, for example, it is unclear whether groups continue fighting due to the original political reasons or due to the income generated from war-related illicit drug trade. These complexities have led recent authors to challenge the simplistic “greed versus grievance” framework as both elements are often found in conflict situations.

Berdal M. and Keen D., 1997, 'Violence and Economic Agendas in Civil Wars: Some Policy Implications', Millennium: Journal of International Studies, London, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 795-818
This article analyses conflicts and peace efforts in several African, Asian and Central American countries, revealing the crucial role played by economics. The pursuit of ‘rational’ economic goals by conflict participants is often a major factor behind the continuation of a war that otherwise seems illogical. People at all levels of society can profit from conflict to the extent that peace seems unattractive. Or violence may offer a degree of economic security that is preferable to the uncertain prospects of peace. Conflict can only be tackled by taking into account the non-political functions of violence and the economic benefits it can bring.
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Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A., 2000, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War', World Bank, Washington
Are civil wars really caused by political repression, inequality, or religious and ethnic differences? What roles do factors other than grievance play in rebellion? This paper looks at the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. Civil wars are now more common than international conflict. Of 25 armed conflicts in 2000, 23 were internal. Rebellion needs both motivation and opportunity. Political science explains conflict in terms of motive. When grievances are sufficiently acute, here is violent protest. Such grievances include inequality, oppression, religious and ethnic tensions. A much smaller literature from economic theory models rebellion as an industry that generates profit from looting. Greed, not grievance, is the driving force, and opportunity is more important than motive.
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Cramer, C. and Hanlon, J., 2006, 'Greed versus Grievance: Conjoined Twins or Discrete Drivers of Violent Conflict', Civil War, Civil Peace, Yanacopulos, H. and Hanlon, J., Open University in association with James Currey, Oxford and Ohio University Press, Athens, Ohio
The debate within neoclassical economics on the main sources of civil war has crystallised around a simple dichotomy between ‘greed’ and ‘grievance’. This chapter argues that it is questionable whether the ‘greed versus grievance’ debate is useful as a means of understanding violent conflict. These terms are difficult to separate and, moreover, it is unlikely that there can be a clear ‘either/or’ explanation of the causes of war.
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Resource exploitation

Research has demonstrated connections between lootable resources and conflict.  Control and exploitation of natural resources can be involved in all phases of the conflict cycle, contributing to: the outbreak of conflict through inequitable resource and wealth sharing; the perpetuation of conflict, through the exploitation of ‘high-value’ resources to finance armed forces; and the undermining of conflict resolution and peace agreements by parties that could lose access to resource revenues. Extractable resources are most likely to provoke conflict when resource exploitation becomes linked to social or political exclusion. These issues also often arise where there is a shortage of non-lootable resources and where resources are located inside the conflict zone.

Aspinall, E., 2007, ‘The Construction of Grievance’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 51, no. 6, pp. 950-972
When and under what circumstances does natural resource extraction give rise to violent conflict? This paper analyses the separatist conflict in Aceh, Indonesia. It argues that natural resource exploitation promoted conflict in Aceh only because it became entangled in wider processes of identity construction and was reinterpreted back to the population by ethnic political entrepreneurs in a way that legitimated violence. Rather than any intrinsic qualities of natural resource extraction, the key factor was the presence of an appropriate identity-based collective action frame.
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Snyder, R. and Bhavnani, R., 2005, ‘Diamond, Blood and Taxes: A Revenue-Centred Framework for Explaining Political Order’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 563-597
Why are lootable resources such as alluvial diamonds linked to civil war in some cases and peace in others? This article suggests that to answer this question the focus must shift from rebels to rulers, to state spending and to the constraints on the rulers' ability to earn revenue. It argues that in countries rich in lootable resources, the ability of rulers to achieve political order depends on the availability of non-lootable resources, the mode of extraction of lootable resources and patterns of state spending.
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Lujala, P., 2010 'The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources', Journal of Peace Research, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 15–28
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Ikelegbe, A., 2006, ‘The Economy of Conflict in the Oil Rich Niger Delta Region of Nigeria’, African and Asian Studies, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 23-56
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De Koning, R., 2008, ‘Resource–conflict links in Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the Congo’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm
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For discussion and resources on the ‘resource curse’, see the section on ‘natural resources and unearned state income’ in structural and economic factors under causes and characteristics of the GSDRC’s fragile states guide.

For further resources on conflict economies, see ‘transformation of war economies’ in the socioeconomic recovery section of this guide.

Environmental insecurity and resource scarcity

Seminal work by Homer-Dixon in the 1990s argued that environmental scarcities were contributing to violent conflict in areas in the developing world. Environmental scarcities stem from environmental change and resource degradation; population pressure; and the unequal distribution of resources, such as land and water.

Environmental factors are rarely, if ever, the sole cause of conflict, but can combine with other factors to contribute to instability and violence. For example, environmental pressures may contribute to the weakening of the state – for example when the state is unable to provide food security for its citizens. Environmental shocks can also result in economic instability, especially in predominantly poorer agrarian countries. Scarcities can also result in increasing rising competition over the allocation of resources between certain economic sectors, regions or population groups. The risk of conflict may be higher if the groups disadvantaged in resource allocation are also marginalised socially, economically or politically.

Climate change is likely to increase the risk of conflict in certain regions. The consequences will be most acutely felt in poor and badly governed countries, which may find it most difficult to adapt. Climate change may also exacerbate communal conflict, most seriously affecting politically and economically marginalised groups.

Homer-Dixon, T. F., 1994, ‘Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases’, International Security, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 5-40
Could environmental scarcities cause violent conflict? This article reports on the impacts of environmental change, population growth and unequal distribution of resources. Environmental scarcities are already contributing to violent conflict in the developing world. There are early signs of an upsurge in violence in the coming decades that will be induced or aggravated by scarcity. Poor societies will be less able to protect themselves from environmental scarcities and the social crises they cause.
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Smith, D. and Vivenkananda, J., 2009, 'Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility: Understanding the Linkages, Shaping Effective Responses', International Alert, London
What effect will climate change have on violent conflict? This report argues that climate change is most likely to provoke conflict in poor, badly governed countries with a recent history of violent conflict. Adaptation policies must respond to the links between climate change, state fragility and conflict, and must begin by focusing on as local a level as possible. Further, a large-scale systematic study is needed of the likely costs of adaptation. This should address the social and political dimensions as well as economic sectors.
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Smith, D. and Vivenkananda, J., 2007, 'A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War', International Alert, London
What are the likely social and human consequences of climate change? Many of the world’s poorest places face a double-headed problem: climate change and violent conflict. This report finds that in fragile states the consequences of climate change can interact with existing socio-political and economic tensions, compounding the causal tensions underlying violent conflict. It argues that conflict-sensitive climate change policies can promote peacebuilding, whilst climate-proof peacebuilding and development policies can be effective climate change adaptation policies.
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Barnett, J. and Adger, N., W., 2007, ‘Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict’, Political Geography, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 639-655
Does climate change increase the risk of violent conflict? This paper integrates three bodies of research on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking. Climate change reduces access to natural resources and undermines state capacity to help people sustain livelihoods. These impacts may in certain circumstances increase the risk of violent conflict, but further investigation is needed.
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Lind, J. and Sturman, K., 2002, ‘Scarcity and Surfeit: The Ecology of Africa’s Conflicts’, African Centre for Technology Studies and Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria
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Houdret, A., 2008, ‘Scarce Water, Plenty of Conflicts? Local Water Conflicts and the Role of Development Cooperation’ INEF Policy Brief, no. 3, Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg
How can water scarcity lead to conflict? How can these conflicts be avoided? This Policy Brief analyses the causes of water conflict and suggests corresponding policy options. Water allocation often reflects social, political and economic inequalities, especially in countries where water is scarce. Water management is increasingly a question of fair distribution and political legitimacy.
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UNEP, 2009, ‘From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of Natural Resources and the Environment’, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi
Conflicts associated with natural resources are twice as likely to relapse into violent conflict. Yet, less than a quarter of peace negotiations for conflicts linked to natural resources have addressed resource management mechanisms. This study argues that the recognition of the contribution of environmental issues to violent conflict underscores their potential as pathways for cooperation and the consolidation of peace. Integrating environment and natural resources into peacebuilding strategies is now a security imperative.
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USAID, 2005, ‘Land and Conflict Toolkit’, USAID, Washington DC
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Aning, K. and Atta-Asamoah, A., 2011, 'Demography, Environment and Conflict in West Africa', Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, Accra, Ghana
Many West African countries have had to grapple with the mutually reinforcing destabilising factors of economic down-turns, population changes (particularly 'youth bulges' and migration), and resource scarcity. This paper examines West African conflicts and argues that demographic, economic and environmental factors require greater consideration in attempts to promote peace. It finds that the political exploitation of young people has contributed to the role of the youth 'bulge' in conflict. Migration and competition for environmental resources have added to social tensions, and conflict has caused environmental damage. Recommendations include youth development interventions and greater emphasis on environmental protection in security strategies.
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