Chapter 1 - Understanding violent conflict

Conflict dynamics and impact

Conflict dynamics

Escalation and sustainability

Conflict escalation can be defined as an increase in the magnitude of disagreements, hostilities or violence (Shale 2006).  Many conflict theorists find that the likelihood of conflict escalation depends on the way the parties involved react in response to others. Where parties or institutions do not manage conflict well and react with force, conflict can escalate.  In Zimbabwe, for example, the violence meted out during Operation Murambatsvina escalated the political conflict, polarising communities and rupturing relationships. Such fissures and hostilities can be a cause of future conflict.

Such dynamics contribute to the sustainability of conflict.  The literature on ‘greed’ (see resource and environmental factors under causes of conflict) introduced the notion that the original causes of conflict may not be the same factors that sustain war. It is thus important to adopt a chronological, contextual and dynamic approach when engaging in causal analysis in order to understand how the conflict has developed over time.

Shale, V., 2006, ‘Operation Murambatsvina: The Dynamics and Escalation of Zimbabwean Intra-state Conflict’, African Journal on Conflict Resolution, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 107-126
Why does Zimbabwe remain trapped in a cycle of political violence and economic crisis? This article argues that Zimbabwe’s Operation Murambatsvina of 2005 was a purge directed against opposition supporters, and an example of Pruitt and Rubin’s ‘structural change’ model of conflict escalation. The human cost of violence and impoverishment in Zimbabwe includes a disturbing trend of polarisation, mistrust and hostility within the community.
Access full text: available online

Maitre, B., 2009, ‘What Sustains 'Internal Wars'? The Dynamics of Violent Conflict and State Weakness in Sudan’, Third World Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 53-68 
Are the factors that start internal wars the same as the factors that sustain them? This paper argues that the international community has been misguided in focusing on determining the causalities of internal wars and should instead focus on the contextual conditions and dynamic relationships that allow them to continue. Using the conflicts in Sudan as a case study, the paper concludes that time alters the reasons why internal wars are fought, and argues that the international community is not well placed to intervene.
Access full text: available online

Feasibility and availability of arms

Recent analysis has also stressed ‘feasibility’ as a key factor in explaining where and when conflict can occur. Many authors stress, for example, that the easy availability of small arms and light weapons has rendered resort to violence less costly and more likely.

Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. and Rohner, D., 2006, 'Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War', CSAE Working Paper Series, no. 10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, Oxford
A key distinction among theories of civil war is between those that are built upon motivation and those that are built upon feasibility. This article explores this distinction by analysing a comprehensive global sample of civil wars between 1965 and 2004. The results substantiate the ‘feasibility hypothesis’ which contends that where civil war is feasible, it will occur without reference to motivation.
Access full text: available online

An updated version of the above paper is available here.

IANSA, Amnesty International, and Oxfam, 2006, ‘Arms without Borders: Why a Globalised Trade Needs Global Controls: Lack of Responsibility in the Ownership and Production of the Global Arms Industry’, Oxfam
The global arms trade will soon reach record levels, yet as weapons production has become more globalised, national regulations are insufficient to prevent unlawful use. What needs to be done to ensure that the burgeoning trade in arms is properly contained? This report examines how the proliferation of improperly controlled weapons has serious negative implications for conflict resolution, human rights and development. It argues that there is an urgent need for a legally binding Arms Trade Treaty that will create minimum global standards for arms transfers.
Access full text: available online

Ojakorotu, V. and Okeke-Uzodike, U., 2006, ‘Oil, Arms Proliferation and Conflict in the Niger Delta of Nigeria’, African Journal on Conflict Resolution, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 85-106
What fuels the present-day oil violence in the Niger Delta? This paper analyses the main sources of conflict, in particular a thriving small arms trade. Weapons smuggled through Guinea-Bissau, Gabon and Cameroon continue to supply ethnic militias. While addressing arms trafficking through border control can reduce the escalation of conflict, a key issue is inequity in Nigerian federalism. Adequate representation of minority interests needs to be addressed as an integral part of the project to create a true democracy, good governance, an enhanced position for ethnic minorities and transparent fiscal control.
Access full text: available online

Impact of conflict

Violent conflict has devastating effects across a range of areas, many of which have lasting impacts.

Human toll: Violent conflict results in loss of life, disablement, rape and sexual violence, displacement and forced migration, the spread of disease and famine. Loss of life continues into the future with the spread of HIV/AIDS and the presence of landmines.

Social systems: Armed conflicts disrupt and destroy families and community life.  Family systems are undermined through the deliberate targeting of women, the recruitment of children to join ranks of rebel groups, massive displacements, and losses of life and property.

Political governance: Violent conflict impacts negatively on the rule of law, state capacity, and democratic political processes. Corruption and criminality often take root, and the influence of military actors rises. Politically excluded groups are increasingly marginalised and targeted.

Socioeconomic costs: Infrastructure, capital stock and household assets are destroyed during conflict, investment declines, and household and national incomes drop. The loss of livelihoods, due in part to the destruction of infrastructure and natural resources, and lack of employment opportunities coincides with a weakened social safety net and a decline in the capacity of the state to provide services, such as health and education. Socioeconomic indicators demonstrate that impacts of conflict include declining literacy, a drop in life expectancy and increased infant mortality. The collapse of education systems and the loss of educated populations (due to death or displacement) have negative long-term implications for human capital and economic productivity. 

The development of war economies, trade in illicit goods and a focus on informal sectors to cope with the weakening of the formal sector, can distort economic production and growth. Resource exploitation, the depletion of natural resources and other forms of environmental degradation can have long-term adverse effects for sustainable development.

Social capital: The processes and impact of violent conflict weakens and in some cases destroys the social fabric of societies. Conflict disrupts social relations and can result in social dislocation, and a decline in interpersonal and communal group trust. While social capital within a group may be strengthened, social capital across groups is weakened by the destruction of the norms and values that underlie cooperation.

Social-psychological: Experiencing violent conflict can be extremely traumatic.  Many war-affected persons suffer from post-traumatic stress syndrome, which contributes to poor mental and physical health, reduced quality of life, and in some cases, greater difficulties in work, education and family life - and increased violent behaviour.  Women who have endured sexual violence can suffer rejection in their own families and communities. Youth and children are at particular risk: research has shown that experiencing violence at an early age results in higher risk of perpetuating violence.

Feelings of humiliation and betrayal, and the desire for revenge, can also perpetuate a cycle of violence in which ‘underlings’ rise to power, engage in extreme acts, inflicting indignities on those who had done the same to them.

Legacy of large-scale human rights abuses: Violent conflict results from and produces a breakdown in law and order and the perpetration of human rights abuses on a mass scale – by government, non-state actors, and in the case of transnational conflicts, external actors.  Addressing this legacy and finding the appropriate methods to come to terms with it is a key challenge in conflict-affected societies.  Left unaddressed, there is the risk that grievances will persist and societies will remain locked in conflict dynamics.

Regional/global impact: Violent conflict has various effects in neighbouring countries and beyond as arms, drugs, conflict resources and refugees spill over the border. Mass refugee migration in particular can place a large economic burden on host countries.  Neighbouring countries may also suffer from damage to cross-border infrastructure and the environmental impacts of conflict.

UNDP, 2008, 'The Legacies of Armed Conflict‘, Chapter 2 in Post-Conflict Economic Recovery: Enabling Local Ingenuity, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR), UNDP, New York, pp. 14-47
What are the economic legacies of armed conflict? How should policymakers approach these legacies in recovery strategies? This chapter argues that post-conflict countries are not blank slates on which new economic and social systems can be built. For a recovery strategy to work, it must acknowledge the legacies of armed conflict and consolidate those that contribute towards peace and stability.
Access full text: available online

Sexsmith, K., 2009, ‘Violent Conflict and Social Transformation: An Institutionalist Approach to the Role of Informal Economic Networks’ European Journal of Development Research, vol. 21 no. 1, pp. 81–94
What is the role of informal economic networks in violent conflict? This article finds that in Somalia customary institutions of trust were preserved during conflict and contributed to economic coordination and conflict mediation. In Sierra Leone, patrimonial networks led to social collapse. Thus, social transformations arising from conflict can be productive or destructive, depending on the institutions embedded in social networks. The historical relationship of informal networks to the state shapes the institutional content of these networks.
Access full text: available online

Orero, M. et al, 2007, ‘The Impact of Conflict on the Intergenerational Transmission of Chronic Poverty’, Working Paper, no. 71, Chronic Poverty Research Centre, Manchester
What impact does conflict have on the intergenerational transmission of chronic poverty? This paper reviews conflict and poverty literature, and finds that conflict is likely a contributory factor to the intergenerational transmission of chronic poverty. It cautions, however, that the causal link is difficult to demonstrate and requires further research based on longitudinal approaches to better map the relationship between conflict and poverty.
Access full text: available online

Justino, P., 2009, ‘The Impact of Armed Civil Conflict on Household Welfare and Policy Responses’, HiCN Working Paper, no. 61, Households in Conflict Network, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton
How does armed conflict impact on households and how do they respond to and cope with it? This paper examines the direct and indirect effects of conflicts and shows that the indirect effects are channelled through markets, political institutions and social networks. Until there is more research on the fundamental processes linking armed civil conflict and household welfare, it will be difficult to develop effective policies for preventing and resolving conflicts.
Access full text: available online

Additional resources

For discussion and resources on the impact of conflict on women and girls, see the women in conflict-affected areas section of this guide. 

For discussion and resources on the impact of conflict on social exclusion, see the underlying causes of conflict section of the GSDRC’s social exclusion guide.

For discussion and resources on addressing the legacy of large-scale human rights abuses, see the transitional justice section of the GSDRC’s justice guide.

New additions