Chapter 1 - Understanding violent conflict

Conflict analysis: framework and tools

Conflict Analysis: Introduction

Conflict analysis is an essential yet tremendously challenging process.  The aim is to gain a comprehensive and shared understanding of potential or ongoing violent conflicts.  This usually involves an assessment of key conflict factors (sources of tension and root causes of conflict, including linkages and synergies), actors (interests, potential spoilers, capacities for violence and peace, incentives required to promote peace), and dynamics (triggers for violence, local capacities for peaceful and constructive conflict management, likely future scenarios). Analysis is undertaken at local, national, regional and international levels.

Conflict analysis should inform decision-making with the aim of improving the effectiveness of conflict prevention, conflict management and peacebuilding interventions, including the effectiveness of development and humanitarian assistance (see the following section on conflict sensitive development).  It is important to emphasise that conflict analysis is an ongoing process and not a static, one-off exercise.  As such, process design is very important.

Frameworks and tools

The following are a selection of conflict analysis frameworks and tools adopted by international organisations, donor agencies and non-governmental organisations.  While there are a variety of analytical frameworks and tools, many follow a similar logic. It is beneficial to find one most suited to a particular need or situation and to further adapt it, rather than understanding them as rigid frameworks.

United Nations

UNDG/ECHA, 2004, ‘Interagency Framework for Conflict Analysis in Transition Situations’, Working Group on Transition, UNDG/ECHA
United Nations (UN) post-conflict responses should be based on standardised inter-agency analyses to help overcome structures that lead to violent conflict and to promote integrated peace. This report outlines analytical components necessary to understand conflict causes and dynamics that support peace efforts in a transition situation. Application of such an analytical framework would help construct subsequent UN programming that incorporates context-specific factors and supports the achievement of lasting peace.
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UNDP, 2003, ‘Conflict-related Development Analysis (CDA)’, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations Development Programme, New York
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World Bank

Wam, P. and Sardesai, S. 2005 'The Conflict Analysis Framework', Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team (CPR), The World Bank, Washington
Conflict sensitive approaches to development assistance can help prevent the onset, exacerbation or resurgence of violent conflict. The World Bank's Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) is a tool to assess the causes and consequences of conflict, determine a country's resilience to conflict, and developing appropriate conflict sensitive approaches to programming. This paper outlines the stages of the CAF, examining when and how it should be applied.
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World Bank, 2006, 'Effective Conflict Analysis Exercises: Overcoming Organisational Challenges?', Report No. 36446-GLB, 21 June, The World Bank, Washington
Understanding the social and economic factors that affect conflict improves the effectiveness of development strategies and programmes. This paper examines the process of conducting conflict analyses and recommends how they should be organised, applied and disseminated. Creating buy-in for the analysis by country teams, use of local partners and dissemination of analysis findings are key to executing an effective conflict analysis.
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Bilateral donors

Goodhand, J., Vaux, T., and Walker, R., 2002, 'Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes', Department for International Development, London
These guidance notes explain the principles and methodology of conducting effective strategic conflict analyses (SCAs). DFID's SCAs have three key aims: to map out causes and trends in a conflict; analysis of international responses to it; and development of future policy options. An abridged example is given as an appendix to the guide, along with sources of further information. SCAs should include international factors, risks and impacts of development interventions, and suggestions for making policies more conflict-sensitive. Flexibility is key: adapt SCAs to the end user's needs; be aware of the nature and phase of conflict; identify particular actors and triggers which could cause latent tensions to erupt into conflict.
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United States Agency for International Development, 2004, ‘Conducting a Conflict Assessment. A Framework for Analysis and Program Development, Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation’, USAID, Washington 
What can international donors do to help prevent conflict? This paper presents a conflict assessment framework. It is designed to help USAID Missions gain a deeper understanding of the causes of conflict and think about how to use development assistance more strategically in order to address them. It emphasises the interactions between the motives, means and opportunities for conflict, and recommends that donors take an integrated approach.
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SIDA, 2006, ‘Manual for Conflict Analysis’, Division for Peace and Security through Development Cooperation, Methods Document, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Stockholm
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Leonhardt, M., 2002,‘Conflict Analysis for Project Planning and Implementation’, GTZ
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NGOs

FEWER, International Alert, and Saferworld, 2004, 'Chapter 2: Conflict Analysis', Conflict Sensitive Approaches to Development, Humanitarian Assistance, and Peacebuilding: A Resource Pack, London
What is conflict analysis and why is it important? This chapter places conflict analysis at the foundation of a conflict sensitive approach. Without understanding the context in which interventions are situated, organisations implementing them may unintentionally fuel conflict. While conflicts are too complex for a single process to do them justice, key features of analysis are conflict profile, causes, actors and dynamics.
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Specht, I., 2008, ‘Conflict Analysis: Practical tool to Analyse Conflict in Order to Prioritise and Strategise Conflict Transformation Programmes’, ICCO, Kirk in Action, and Transitional International
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Gender mainstreaming

Anderlini, S. N., 2006, ‘Mainstreaming Gender in Conflict Analysis: Issues and Recommendations’, Social Development Papers, no. 33, World Bank, Washington, DC
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For additional resources on gender in conflict analysis, see gender analysis and gender-sensitivity in the post-conflict recovery under women in conflict-affected areas in this guide.

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