Chapter 2 - Causes and characteristics of fragility

Social and international causes and characteristics

Social factors and the social context of fragility

Weak state-society relations

Many argue the nature of the state cannot be separated from the nature of societies, and that state fragility therefore has to be understood in terms of state-society relations. Migdal’s seminal work in this area starts with the premise that there is often disjuncture between the state’s rules of the game and the operative dictates of society. In order to achieve social control (the primary determinant of state strength), states have to become a real and symbolic aspect of people’s daily survival strategies.

Migdal, J.S., 1988, 'Strong Societies and Weak States: State-society Relations in the Third World', Princeton University Press
This book presents a model for understanding state capabilities in the Third World based on state-society relations. Its central premises are i) the nature of the state cannot be separated from the nature of societies and ii) the emergence of a strong, capable state can occur only with a tremendous concentration of social control (to the state). The state’s struggle for social control is characterised by conflict between state leaders, who seek to mobilise people and resources and impose a single set of rules, and other social organisations applying different rules in parts of the society. The distribution of social control in society that emerges as a result of this conflict (between societies and states) is the main determinant of whether states become strong or weak.
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Further resources on the breakdown of the social contract and corruption in conflict-affected states is available in the GSDRC’s conflict topic guide.

Lack of social cohesion

Societies in fragile states are often polarised in ethnic, religious or class-based groups, often as a result of a legacy of conflict, or, some argue, colonialism. Critically, these societies are often dislocated from – and ambivalent towards – the state. Some argue identity fragmentation results in fragile states lacking the virtuous cycles of cooperation, trust, reciprocity and collective well-being that are vital in forming the social contract. Others argue states work best when they are structured around cohesive groups that can capitalise on their common institutions and affinities.

Kaplan, S., 2008, ‘Fragile States, Fractured Societies’, Chapter 3 in Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development, Praeger Security International, London
What has caused the difficulties experienced by fragile states? This chapter explores the roots of state fragility and the role of foreign aid in sustaining past dysfunction. Two structural problems – political identity fragmentation (often based on arbitrarily drawn state borders) and weak national institutions – reinforce each other. They undermine state legitimacy, interpersonal trust and the formation of robust governance systems and encourage neopatrimonialism. Fragile states’ formal institutions need to be reconnected with the local societies upon which they have been imposed.
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Social exclusion

Social exclusion, particularly based on identity in terms of gender, ethnicity, class, or religion, has long been viewed as a critical underlying cause of conflict and fragility. Where societal or political groups are excluded from the state or its key institutions, they may seek to challenge the state. Failure to manage such challenges through political negotiation may lead these groups to have recourse to violent opposition. Denials or violations of rights based on social exclusion and discrimination can therefore lead to fragility. Within this, some research has focused on links between youth exclusion, violence and fragile states.

Douma P., 2006, 'Poverty, Relative Deprivation and Political Exclusion as Drivers of Violent Conflict in Sub Saharan Africa', Journal on Science and World Affairs, Volume 2, Number 2, pp. 59-6
How can states in sub-Saharan Africa better provide for the needs of their populations and reduce inter-group violence? This article examines poverty and conflict escalation in Niger and Senegal. It argues that during the post-colonial period, the sub-Saharan region has witnessed a substantial number of violent conflicts, mostly within states between contending ethno-political entities manipulated by rival political elite groups. The problems within these so-called fragile or failed states are closely related to a lack of a ‘social contract’ between incumbent elite groups and constituent ethnic communities, which leads to political fragmentation. This is exacerbated by the interaction of diverse social, ethnic and resource exploitation-related issues.
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Hilker M., Fraser E., 2009, 'Youth Exclusion, Violence, Conflict and Fragile States', Report prepared for DFID by Social Development Direct, London
What factors contribute to youth exclusion and increase the likelihood of youth engagement in violence? How can DFID effectively address issues of youth exclusion and violence? This report examines existing evidence and analysis on the links between youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states. It highlights factors which can contribute to youth violence, and makes recommendations for DFID's work on youth exclusion and violence.
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Further discussion of social exclusion as an underlying cause of conflict can be found in conflict in the GSDRC’s conflict topic guide.

Horizontal inequalities

Recent research has analysed how horizontal inequalities can be manipulated to engender political violence. Horizontal inequalities are inequalities between groups (defined by identity, such as ethnicity, religion or caste) across economic, social and political dimensions. These can lead to resentment and tensions, and can foster group mobilisation. Mobilisation may initially be peaceful, but where this has no effect or is put down violently by the state, it can lead to violent conflict.

Stewart F., Brown G.K., Langer A., 2008, 'Major Findings and Conclusions on the Relationship Between Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict', in Stewart, F. (ed.), Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke
How direct is the link between horizontal inequalities (HIs) and conflict? This chapter outlines the numerous factors which determine the impact HIs will have on a country’s stability. The evidence comes from a comparison of case studies of countries which have experienced violence and those which have avoided it. Severe HIs are particularly likely to be a source of conflict when they remain consistent across dimensions. HIs are best analysed as multidimensional indicators – for instance, abrupt changes in political HIs, when other HIs are at extreme levels, are more likely to trigger conflict.
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Further discussion of identity politics can be found in the GSDRC’s conflict topic guide.

Weak civil society

Fragility is also seen to erode the foundations and the structures of civil society. In turn, weak civil society, and its lack of capacity to act as a check on the accountability of leaders, creates an environment conducive to the continuation of fragility.

Chabal, P. and Daloz, J. P., 1999, 'The Illusions of Civil Society' in Africa works: Disorder as Political Instrument (African Issues), James Currey, Oxford
Current thinking on the post-colonial state in Africa stresses the need to cut back or bypass the state, which is seen as inefficient and predatory. Can civil society perform the role of reforming the political realm that is currently expected of it? This chapter argues that the dichotomy between state and civil society, which is taken for granted, does not reflect realities in Africa.
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Reno, 2002, 'The Politics of Insurgency in Collapsing States', Development and Change, vol. 33, no.5
When states fail, do mass-based social movements develop to address the ensuing social problems? This article looks at the situation of Nigeria's Bakassi Boys and the Oodua People's Congress and suggests that, contrary to expectation, reformist insurgencies fail to develop in failed states. The cause of this failure is found in the legacy of patronage politics. Specifically, the ensuing popular movements favour those who pursue their own economic interests, marginalising those with more ideological agendas.
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International factors

International political economy

Exogenous factors, including the legacy of colonialism and international government and/or corporate interests, may create or reinforce fragility. Many have argued that historically, colonialism undermined the basis of state legitimacy and disrupted the formation of the social contract in Africa.

Clapham, C., 2002, 'The Challenge to the State in a Globalized World', Development and Change, vol. 33, issue 5
State failure and collapse must be placed within a broader appreciation of the evolution of statehood within the international system. What impact has globalisation had on the development of states and their social and economic structure? This paper traces the origins of the state and identifies the structural and contextual factors that enhance the vulnerability of states. It argues that state failure has to be understood in the context of a world in which maintaining states has become increasingly difficult.
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Doornbos, M., 2006, ‘Fragile States or Failing Models? Accounting for the Incidence of State Collapse’, Chapter 1 in Failing States or Failed States? The Role of Development Models: Collected Works, Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), Madrid 
Why do states collapse, and why do some states seem to collapse more readily than others? Are failing models of state-building in some way to blame? This paper examines the links between fragile states and models of state-building. It argues that in order to understand and respond to situations of state collapse it is important to understand the specific trajectories of failing states.
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Sogge, D., 2009, ‘Angola: ‘Failed’ yet ‘Successful’’, FRIDE Working Paper 81, FRIDE, Madrid
What are the causes of state weakness? How best can the international community help weak states move forward? This research argues that the ranking of states in terms of weakness has little value. Furthermore, the political problems that come with natural resources are more complicated than might appear. In the case of Angola, developmental change is unlikely as long as powerful and poorly-regulated offshore incentives continue to shape elite motivations.
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Vulnerability to external shocks

Fragile states are vulnerable to external shocks (e.g. spikes in food and oil prices) because they lack the essential capacities to control or mitigate the negative effects on their economies and their citizens. This has been a long-standing concern, but recent research is focusing on the links between climate change, environmental degradation, resource scarcity and state fragility. Many argue climate change has the potential to overstretch the adaptive capacities of fragile states, which could potentially lead to mass displacement, destabilisation and ultimately violence.

GSDRC, 2008, 'Climate Change and State Fragility', Helpdesk Research Report, GSDRC, Birmingham
The vulnerability of people to climate change depends on extent to which they can adapt to changes to the climate sensitive resources and services that they rely upon. This ability to adapt is based on a broad range of social factors, including poverty, support from the state, access to economic opportunities, effectiveness of decision making processes, and the extent of social cohesion within and surrounding vulnerable groups. These factors are all linked to the state’s capacity to provide services and maintain institutions, which is often lacking in fragile states.
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Bakrania, S., and Lucas, B., 2009, ‘The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Conflict and State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa’, GSDRC Emerging Issues Research Paper, Governance and Social Development Resource Centre, Birmingham
Whilst countries which are currently politically unstable and suffer from pre-existing conflicts have suffered severely from the financial crisis, decreasing income streams could even push some previously stable countries towards fragility. Thus, there is a perilous risk that the crisis could precipitate new instances of fragility and erode many of the gains made over the past decade by post-conflict states in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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GSDRC, 2009, 'The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Conflict and Social Stability', Helpdesk Research Report, GSDRC, Birmingham
While most countries will be able to mitigate the impact of the global economic crisis in the short-term, many countries in Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the former Soviet Union states, lack sufficient cash reserves, access to international aid or credit, or other coping mechanisms to do the same. There is concern that should the crisis persist beyond one or two years, the danger of regime-threatening instability will increase.
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Useful websites

• The Crisis States Research Centre (Crisis States) is a leading centre of interdisciplinary research into processes of war, state collapse and reconstruction in fragile states. 
• The Center on International Cooperation, New York University, runs a research programme on ‘Reducing State Fragility’.

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